Elliot Bay
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Hourly Forecast
Timezone: Pacific/Auckland
⏱️s.
⚡️kJ
Thursday 18
Friday 19
Saturday 20
Sunday 21
Monday 22
Tuesday 23
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Elliot Bay surf guide

Elliot Bay is a surf spot located just south of the Bay of Islands on the east coast, north of Whangarei. It's not the easiest place to get to since you’ll have to walk over some private land to access the beach, but it’s worth it for a less crowded surf experience. The bay often has clear water, making it a nice spot to ride some waves when the rest of the coast is flat.

The surf here works best with an east swell but can also pick up from the northeast and southeast. It handles swell sizes starting from around 2 feet (0.6 meters) and provides beach breaks that offer both left and right waves. The best time to surf is during low to high tide, with west winds generally providing the best conditions. It’s a spot that can cater to beginners thanks to its sandy breaks, making it a good place for those just starting out or looking to improve their skills.

Accessing the beach involves crossing through private property, and you’ll find an honesty box for payment. If you're willing to make the trek, you’ll enjoy the more isolated breaks available to the north. Just keep in mind that while this spot can be good, it can also get crowded during prime surfing times.

Surf reports and surf forecasts nearby Elliot Bay

Mimiwhangata Bay
Northland, New Zealand
Beach break
Thu 18
Fri 19
Sat 20
Sun 21
Mon 22
Tue 23
Wed 24
Thu 25
Fri 26
Sat 27
Sun 28
Mon 29
Whananaki North
Northland, New Zealand
Rivermouth break
Thu 18
Fri 19
Sat 20
Sun 21
Mon 22
Tue 23
Wed 24
Thu 25
Fri 26
Sat 27
Sun 28
Mon 29
Elliot Bay
Northland, New Zealand
Beach break
Thu 18
Fri 19
Sat 20
Sun 21
Mon 22
Tue 23
Wed 24
Thu 25
Fri 26
Sat 27
Sun 28
Mon 29
Ngunguru Bar
Northland, New Zealand
Rivermouth break
Thu 18
Fri 19
Sat 20
Sun 21
Mon 22
Tue 23
Wed 24
Thu 25
Fri 26
Sat 27
Sun 28
Mon 29
Pataua Bar
Northland, New Zealand
Rivermouth break
Thu 18
Fri 19
Sat 20
Sun 21
Mon 22
Tue 23
Wed 24
Thu 25
Fri 26
Sat 27
Sun 28
Mon 29
Mangawhai Heads
Northland, New Zealand
Rivermouth break
Thu 18
Fri 19
Sat 20
Sun 21
Mon 22
Tue 23
Wed 24
Thu 25
Fri 26
Sat 27
Sun 28
Mon 29
Waipu Bar
Northland, New Zealand
Rivermouth break
Thu 18
Fri 19
Sat 20
Sun 21
Mon 22
Tue 23
Wed 24
Thu 25
Fri 26
Sat 27
Sun 28
Mon 29
Taupo Bay
Northland, New Zealand
Beach break
Thu 18
Fri 19
Sat 20
Sun 21
Mon 22
Tue 23
Wed 24
Thu 25
Fri 26
Sat 27
Sun 28
Mon 29
Puheke Beach
Northland, New Zealand
Beach break
Thu 18
Fri 19
Sat 20
Sun 21
Mon 22
Tue 23
Wed 24
Thu 25
Fri 26
Sat 27
Sun 28
Mon 29
Waipoua Reefs
Northland, New Zealand
Reef break
Thu 18
Fri 19
Sat 20
Sun 21
Mon 22
Tue 23
Wed 24
Thu 25
Fri 26
Sat 27
Sun 28
Mon 29

Readme

Welcome! If you’re new to surf forecasting, check out this quick guide.

Forecast Table

The forecast table (the section on the page with all the numbers) is designed to pack as much information in the screen as possible. Although intimidating at first, it will help you make informed decisions about the waves faster, trust me :D. The table consists of roughly four sections, time and predictions, wind, waves, and tides:

🔮 Time and predictions section

Here we show the forecast thour and the overall surf quality prediction. This is determined based on the wave, wind and tide quality prediction. These individual predictions can be found on the forecast map.

💨 Wind section

The first row on the table (with the 💨 icon) shows wind speed, direction and gust. The more the wind speed the more aggressive the color (from blue, green, orange to red).

🌊 Wave section

The waves section consists of three rows, one for wave height and direction, one for period and one for wave energy. Our algorithm choices the "dominant wave". This is normally the first swell partition, but with heavy local storms it displays the wind waves. If that's the case, we display the numbers in italic and in gray.

🌒 Tide section

The tide section consists of a row with the actual heights per hour (measured at the half hour) and a table that displays the flow of the tide and the extremes (lows and highs).

Forecast map

The forecast map consists of arrows. These arrows represent all wave partitions (swell partitions and wind wave partition) and the wind. This allows you to see things like: a secondary swell or wind waves messes up the surf, or the wind is just a tick offshore so very surfable. Click a metric label in the bottom left to bring that arrow to the front — handy when arrows overlap.

Forecast Cheat Sheet

Short on time? Focus on wave energy. It’s the best single metric to gauge how big and powerful the waves will be.

Click any table cell to jump to that forecast hour. The map will update with forecast arrows, so you can see if wind and swell direction are lining up.

Use the table sidebar to switch units for height and speed.

Log your surf sessions to compare forecasts with real sessions and sharpen future predictions.

Models and Updates

Surfnerd blends multiple global and local wind and swell models using advanced interpolation and spatial techniques to create an "ensemble" forecast. Forecasts are refreshed hourly.

Surf Predictions

Our AI-driven algorithm scores surf quality, shown by green, orange, and gray dots. Each forecast hour is rated for wind, swell, and tide quality, then combined into an overall score. Here’s the scale:

Perfect
Good
Average
Bad or No Data

Session logs also feed the algorithm — the more you log, the smarter your forecasts get.

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Wind certainty

Wind certainty tells you how much the weather models agree on the forecast.

  • High certainty: Models agree closely; forecast is reliable.
  • Medium certainty: Some disagreement; conditions may shift slightly.
  • Low certainty: Models diverge; treat forecast with caution.

We calculate this by comparing wind speed, gust and direction from multiple models (like GFS, ECMWF, Arome, and Harmonie) and seeing how closely they match. They are weighted, meaning that some models count more than others, depending on how good they are for a certain spot.

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