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Surf forecast for San Pancho

Tide
⏱️s.
⚡️kJ
Timezone:
America/Bahia_Banderas
Forecast updated:
26/06, 12:00
Wind: SN UNITY Atmos
(20260626 18z)
Waves: SN UNITY WAVE
(20260626 18z)
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Timeline

San Pancho Surf Forecast Guide

San Pancho, or San Francisco as it’s also known, is a laid-back surf spot located close to the popular Costa Azul resort. It offers surfers a different vibe compared to California waves, with a friendly local crowd. The beach is not always packed, but you might run into some fellow surfers, especially on weekends. The main attraction is its unique surf break with a fast left-hander off the point and a peak that gets fun right in front of the river mouth.

The surf at San Pancho works best with a southwest swell direction, though it can handle swells coming from the south and northwest, with optimal conditions around 2ft (about 0.6 meters). The waves break over uneven reef and sand, offering a mix of point and beach break style. If you’re looking for good rides, low to mid tides are the way to go. When the waves are on, especially at low tide, they can get hollow and fun, especially for intermediate surfers keen to test their skills. The best wind direction to aim for is east, which helps keep the surf clean.

While you’re out there catching waves, just keep an eye on the rips near the river mouth. They can be tricky to navigate, especially when the tide changes. It’s a great spot to enjoy some surf time, but make sure you’re aware of the conditions. Happy surfing!

Surf spots near San Pancho

Costa Azul
Nayarit, Mexico
Unknown break
Sat 27
Sun 28
Mon 29
Tue 30
Wed 1
San Pancho
Nayarit, Mexico
Point break
Sat 27
Sun 28
Mon 29
Tue 30
Wed 1
Ostiones
Nayarit, Mexico
Reef break
Sat 27
Sun 28
Mon 29
Tue 30
Wed 1
Punta Sayulita
Nayarit, Mexico
Reef break
Sat 27
Sun 28
Mon 29
Tue 30
Wed 1
Punta Burros
Nayarit, Mexico
Reef break
Sat 27
Sun 28
Mon 29
Tue 30
Wed 1

Frequently asked questions

What are good surfing conditions for San Pancho?

San Pancho is usually best with swell from south through west-southwest to northwest (S-WSW-NW), ideally southwest (SW) around 0.6 m / 2 ft to 3 m / 10 ft, east (E) offshore wind, and low to mid tide.

Where is the surf spot San Pancho?

San Pancho is a surf spot in San Pancho, Nayarit, Mexico.

What is the surf break like at San Pancho?

San Pancho is a left point break over uneven reef and sand. Expect a moderate crowd.

What surfing skill level is San Pancho suitable for?

San Pancho can suit intermediate surfers.

Is San Pancho beginner friendly for surfing?

San Pancho is better suited to intermediate surfers.

How consistent is the surf at San Pancho?

San Pancho is one of the more consistent surf spots in Nayarit, Mexico.

What facilities are available for surfers at San Pancho?

Facilities for surfers at San Pancho: camping and surf shop.

What surf spots are near San Pancho?

Other nearby surf spots are Ostiones, Costa Azul, Punta Sayulita, and Punta Burros.

What swell direction works for surfing at San Pancho?

San Pancho can work with swell from south through west-southwest to northwest (S-WSW-NW); southwest (SW) is usually best.

What swell size works for surfing at San Pancho?

San Pancho usually works with swell around 0.6 m / 2 ft to 3 m / 10 ft.

What wind direction is best for surfing at San Pancho?

East (E) offshore wind is usually best at San Pancho.

What wind direction is offshore for surfing at San Pancho?

East (E) is offshore at San Pancho.

What tide works best for surfing at San Pancho?

San Pancho works best around low to mid tide. A rising tide is usually better here.

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Welcome! If you’re new to surf forecasting, check out this quick guide.

Forecast Table

The forecast table (the section on the page with all the numbers) is designed to pack as much information in the screen as possible. Although intimidating at first, it will help you make informed decisions about the waves faster, trust me :D. The table consists of roughly four sections, time and predictions, wind, waves, and tides:

🔮 Time and predictions section

Here we show the forecast thour and the overall surf quality prediction. This is determined based on the wave, wind and tide quality prediction. These individual predictions can be found on the forecast map.

💨 Wind section

The first row on the table (with the 💨 icon) shows wind speed, direction and gust. The more the wind speed the more aggressive the color (from blue, green, orange to red).

🌊 Wave section

The waves section consists of three rows, one for wave height and direction, one for period and one for wave energy. Our algorithm chooses the "dominant wave" using spot-adjusted surf energy (depth + directional fit). This is usually the first swell partition, but during local storms it can switch to wind waves. If that happens, values are shown in gray and italic.

🌒 Tide section

The tide section consists of a row with the actual heights per hour (measured at the half hour) and a table that displays the flow of the tide and the extremes (lows and highs).

Forecast map

The forecast map consists of arrows. These arrows represent all wave partitions (swell partitions and wind wave partition) and the wind. This allows you to see things like: a secondary swell or wind waves messes up the surf, or the wind is just a tick offshore so very surfable. Click a metric label in the bottom left to bring that arrow to the front — handy when arrows overlap.

Forecast Cheat Sheet

Short on time? Focus on wave energy. It’s the best single metric to gauge how big and powerful the waves will be.

Click any table cell to jump to that forecast hour. The map will update with forecast arrows, so you can see if wind and swell direction are lining up.

Use the table sidebar to switch units for height and speed.

Log your surf sessions to compare forecasts with real sessions and sharpen future predictions.

Models and Updates

Surfnerd blends multiple global and local wind and swell models using advanced interpolation and spatial techniques to create an "ensemble" forecast. Forecasts are refreshed hourly.

Surf Predictions

Our AI-driven algorithm scores surf quality, shown by green, orange, and gray dots. Each forecast hour is rated for wind, swell, and tide quality, then combined into an overall score. Here’s the scale:

Perfect
Good
Average
Bad or No Data

Session logs also feed the algorithm — the more you log, the smarter your forecasts get.

With Surfnerd, no more "you should have been here yesterday"

Confidence

Confidence tells you how much the weather models agree on the forecast.

  • High confidence: Models agree closely; forecast is reliable.
  • Medium confidence: Some disagreement; conditions may shift slightly.
  • Low confidence: Models diverge; treat forecast with caution.

We calculate the wind confidence by comparing wind speed, gust and direction from multiple models (like GFS, ECMWF, Arome, and Harmonie) and seeing how closely they match. For wave certainty we compare height, period and direction, also on multiple models. They are weighted, meaning that some models count more than others, depending on how good they are for a certain spot.

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