Cap Sainte-Marie
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Hourly Forecast
Timezone: Indian/Antananarivo
⏱️s.
⚡️kJ
Saturday 13
Sunday 14
Monday 15
Tuesday 16
Wednesday 17
Thursday 18
Tap a forecast cell to explore conditions on the map.
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Cap Sainte-Marie surf guide

Cap Sainte-Marie is a surf spot located near Ankororoka, accessible mainly by 4WD from Fort-Dauphin. It's known for its rugged environment, with steep cliffs that create a unique and somewhat remote surfing experience. This spot attracts surfers looking for something off the beaten path, but be prepared for a bit of a trek to get there.

The surf here features long left waves that can really get going, particularly when the swell is coming from the south. This spot works well with swell sizes from about 2ft (0.6m) and handles swells coming from the southeast and southwest. The breaks occur over dead coral, which adds to the challenge, so it's more suited for expert surfers who can handle the heavy water conditions. While it can be a bit inconsistent, the waves can provide some exciting rides when it’s on, especially with southeast winds, making for optimal conditions at all tide heights.

Due to its remote location and challenging surf, Cap Sainte-Marie is best suited for experienced surfers who are comfortable in heavy water. The vertical cliffs and lack of easy access mean that this spot may appeal to those looking for an adventurous session away from the more crowded beaches.

Surf reports and surf forecasts nearby Cap Sainte-Marie

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Atsimo Andrefana, Madagascar
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Androka
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Befamata
Androy, Madagascar
Beach break
Sat 13
Sun 14
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Wed 17
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Mon 22
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Lavanono Beach
Androy, Madagascar
Beach break
Sat 13
Sun 14
Mon 15
Tue 16
Wed 17
Thu 18
Fri 19
Sat 20
Sun 21
Mon 22
Tue 23
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Lavanono Left
Androy, Madagascar
Reef break
Sat 13
Sun 14
Mon 15
Tue 16
Wed 17
Thu 18
Fri 19
Sat 20
Sun 21
Mon 22
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Cap Sainte-Marie
Androy, Madagascar
Reef break
Sat 13
Sun 14
Mon 15
Tue 16
Wed 17
Thu 18
Fri 19
Sat 20
Sun 21
Mon 22
Tue 23
Wed 24
Baie d’Italy
Anosy, Madagascar
Beach break
Sat 13
Sun 14
Mon 15
Tue 16
Wed 17
Thu 18
Fri 19
Sat 20
Sun 21
Mon 22
Tue 23
Wed 24
Vinanibe
Anosy, Madagascar
Beach break
Sat 13
Sun 14
Mon 15
Tue 16
Wed 17
Thu 18
Fri 19
Sat 20
Sun 21
Mon 22
Tue 23
Wed 24
Baie des Singes
Anosy, Madagascar
Beach break
Sat 13
Sun 14
Mon 15
Tue 16
Wed 17
Thu 18
Fri 19
Sat 20
Sun 21
Mon 22
Tue 23
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Monseigneur Bay
Anosy, Madagascar
Reef break
Sat 13
Sun 14
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Tue 16
Wed 17
Thu 18
Fri 19
Sat 20
Sun 21
Mon 22
Tue 23
Wed 24

Readme

Welcome! If you’re new to surf forecasting, check out this quick guide.

Forecast Table

The forecast table (the section on the page with all the numbers) is designed to pack as much information in the screen as possible. Although intimidating at first, it will help you make informed decisions about the waves faster, trust me :D. The table consists of roughly four sections, time and predictions, wind, waves, and tides:

🔮 Time and predictions section

Here we show the forecast thour and the overall surf quality prediction. This is determined based on the wave, wind and tide quality prediction. These individual predictions can be found on the forecast map.

💨 Wind section

The first row on the table (with the 💨 icon) shows wind speed, direction and gust. The more the wind speed the more aggressive the color (from blue, green, orange to red).

🌊 Wave section

The waves section consists of three rows, one for wave height and direction, one for period and one for wave energy. Our algorithm choices the "dominant wave". This is normally the first swell partition, but with heavy local storms it displays the wind waves. If that's the case, we display the numbers in italic and in gray.

🌒 Tide section

The tide section consists of a row with the actual heights per hour (measured at the half hour) and a table that displays the flow of the tide and the extremes (lows and highs).

Forecast map

The forecast map consists of arrows. These arrows represent all wave partitions (swell partitions and wind wave partition) and the wind. This allows you to see things like: a secondary swell or wind waves messes up the surf, or the wind is just a tick offshore so very surfable. Click a metric label in the bottom left to bring that arrow to the front — handy when arrows overlap.

Forecast Cheat Sheet

Short on time? Focus on wave energy. It’s the best single metric to gauge how big and powerful the waves will be.

Click any table cell to jump to that forecast hour. The map will update with forecast arrows, so you can see if wind and swell direction are lining up.

Use the table sidebar to switch units for height and speed.

Log your surf sessions to compare forecasts with real sessions and sharpen future predictions.

Models and Updates

Surfnerd blends multiple global and local wind and swell models using advanced interpolation and spatial techniques to create an "ensemble" forecast. Forecasts are refreshed hourly.

Surf Predictions

Our AI-driven algorithm scores surf quality, shown by green, orange, and gray dots. Each forecast hour is rated for wind, swell, and tide quality, then combined into an overall score. Here’s the scale:

Perfect
Good
Average
Bad or No Data

Session logs also feed the algorithm — the more you log, the smarter your forecasts get.

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Wind certainty

Wind certainty tells you how much the weather models agree on the forecast.

  • High certainty: Models agree closely; forecast is reliable.
  • Medium certainty: Some disagreement; conditions may shift slightly.
  • Low certainty: Models diverge; treat forecast with caution.

We calculate this by comparing wind speed, gust and direction from multiple models (like GFS, ECMWF, Arome, and Harmonie) and seeing how closely they match. They are weighted, meaning that some models count more than others, depending on how good they are for a certain spot.

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