Carcavelos
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Hourly Forecast
Timezone: Europe/Lisbon
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⚡️kJ
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Carcavelos surf guide

Carcavelos is a popular surf spot located just 15 minutes outside Lisbon, Portugal. It’s a well-known beachbreak that draws both local and foreign surfers, especially near the eastern end by the fort. The beach stretches about a half-mile and is typically busy due to its accessibility and proximity to the city.

The waves here can be a bit hit or miss, especially in the summer months when the south swell isn't as strong. When the swell hits, Carcavelos can produce some decent waves, especially on a southwest swell, with sizes ranging from 1.2 meters (4 ft) to 3 meters (10 ft). The best time to surf is during the autumn and winter months when it really starts to crank. You’ll find lefts and rights breaking mainly over sandbanks, and while the beach can handle different tides, it works well at low, mid, and high tide. The north wind is preferable, but the crowd can make for a chaotic surf experience. If you’re a beginner, stick to the less crowded areas and be ready for some paddling work on the bigger days.

Accessibility is pretty good, with parking available right near the beach. Just keep in mind that the crowd factor is high, and there’s a certain hierarchy among surfers that you’ll notice. Also, watch out for strong currents and the occasional chaos that comes with a popular spot like Carcavelos. So, if you plan on surfing here, be ready for both the fun and the challenge!

Surf reports and surf forecasts nearby Carcavelos

Monte Estoril
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Sat 13
Sun 14
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Wed 17
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Azarujinja
Lisboa, Portugal
Reef break
Sat 13
Sun 14
Mon 15
Tue 16
Wed 17
Thu 18
Fri 19
Sat 20
Sun 21
Mon 22
Tue 23
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Bica
Lisboa, Portugal
Point break
Sat 13
Sun 14
Mon 15
Tue 16
Wed 17
Thu 18
Fri 19
Sat 20
Sun 21
Mon 22
Tue 23
Wed 24
Bafureira
Lisbon, Portugal
Point break
Sat 13
Sun 14
Mon 15
Tue 16
Wed 17
Thu 18
Fri 19
Sat 20
Sun 21
Mon 22
Tue 23
Wed 24
Parede
Lisbon, Portugal
Point break
Sat 13
Sun 14
Mon 15
Tue 16
Wed 17
Thu 18
Fri 19
Sat 20
Sun 21
Mon 22
Tue 23
Wed 24
Carcavelos
Lisbon, Portugal
Beach break
Sat 13
Sun 14
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Santa Amaro
Lisboa, Portugal
Point break
Sat 13
Sun 14
Mon 15
Tue 16
Wed 17
Thu 18
Fri 19
Sat 20
Sun 21
Mon 22
Tue 23
Wed 24
Cova Do Vapor
Setubal, Portugal
Beach break, Jetty break
Sat 13
Sun 14
Mon 15
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Thu 18
Fri 19
Sat 20
Sun 21
Mon 22
Tue 23
Wed 24

Readme

Welcome! If you’re new to surf forecasting, check out this quick guide.

Forecast Table

The forecast table (the section on the page with all the numbers) is designed to pack as much information in the screen as possible. Although intimidating at first, it will help you make informed decisions about the waves faster, trust me :D. The table consists of roughly four sections, time and predictions, wind, waves, and tides:

🔮 Time and predictions section

Here we show the forecast thour and the overall surf quality prediction. This is determined based on the wave, wind and tide quality prediction. These individual predictions can be found on the forecast map.

💨 Wind section

The first row on the table (with the 💨 icon) shows wind speed, direction and gust. The more the wind speed the more aggressive the color (from blue, green, orange to red).

🌊 Wave section

The waves section consists of three rows, one for wave height and direction, one for period and one for wave energy. Our algorithm choices the "dominant wave". This is normally the first swell partition, but with heavy local storms it displays the wind waves. If that's the case, we display the numbers in italic and in gray.

🌒 Tide section

The tide section consists of a row with the actual heights per hour (measured at the half hour) and a table that displays the flow of the tide and the extremes (lows and highs).

Forecast map

The forecast map consists of arrows. These arrows represent all wave partitions (swell partitions and wind wave partition) and the wind. This allows you to see things like: a secondary swell or wind waves messes up the surf, or the wind is just a tick offshore so very surfable. Click a metric label in the bottom left to bring that arrow to the front — handy when arrows overlap.

Forecast Cheat Sheet

Short on time? Focus on wave energy. It’s the best single metric to gauge how big and powerful the waves will be.

Click any table cell to jump to that forecast hour. The map will update with forecast arrows, so you can see if wind and swell direction are lining up.

Use the table sidebar to switch units for height and speed.

Log your surf sessions to compare forecasts with real sessions and sharpen future predictions.

Models and Updates

Surfnerd blends multiple global and local wind and swell models using advanced interpolation and spatial techniques to create an "ensemble" forecast. Forecasts are refreshed hourly.

Surf Predictions

Our AI-driven algorithm scores surf quality, shown by green, orange, and gray dots. Each forecast hour is rated for wind, swell, and tide quality, then combined into an overall score. Here’s the scale:

Perfect
Good
Average
Bad or No Data

Session logs also feed the algorithm — the more you log, the smarter your forecasts get.

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Wind certainty

Wind certainty tells you how much the weather models agree on the forecast.

  • High certainty: Models agree closely; forecast is reliable.
  • Medium certainty: Some disagreement; conditions may shift slightly.
  • Low certainty: Models diverge; treat forecast with caution.

We calculate this by comparing wind speed, gust and direction from multiple models (like GFS, ECMWF, Arome, and Harmonie) and seeing how closely they match. They are weighted, meaning that some models count more than others, depending on how good they are for a certain spot.

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