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Surf forecast for Last Chance

Tide
⏱️s.
⚡️kJ
Timezone:
Pacific/Auckland
Forecast updated:
23/06, 18:00
Wind: SN UNITY Atmos
(20260622 12z)
Waves: SN UNITY WAVE
(20260622 12z)
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Today Tue 23/06
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Last Chance Surf Forecast Guide

Overview

Last Chance is a good, consistent reef setup with lefts breaking over boulders. When it lines up, it can throw a fast, hollow lefthander down a boulder-lined point. It often has something worth checking when other nearby spots are not working properly.

When It Works

It takes swell from northeast through east-southeast to south, with northeast the optimal direction. The spot works from 0.6 m / 2 ft to 3 m / 10 ft.

Wind and Tide

The offshore wind direction is west. Low and mid tide can work, and mid tide is best. A rising tide is better.

Local Tips

This is for experienced surfers only. Localism has been known to be an issue, so keep it low-key and do not arrive with a big group. Crowds are usually moderate.

Access

Access can be tricky because the route to the waves crosses private property. From Napier, head north on State Highway 2 through Wairoa, then at Nuhaka continue onto Nuhaka Opoutama Road and Mahanga Road. Just past Lake Rotopounamu, you need permission from the farmer to cross the land and drive down the hill to the point. Parking is restricted.

Surf spots near Last Chance

Last Chance
Hawke's Bay Region, New Zealand
Reef break
Tue 23
Wed 24
Thu 25
Fri 26
Sat 27
Mahunga Point
Hawke's Bay Region, New Zealand
Reef break
Tue 23
Wed 24
Thu 25
Fri 26
Sat 27
Mahunga Beach
Hawke's Bay Region, New Zealand
Beach break
Tue 23
Wed 24
Thu 25
Fri 26
Sat 27
Opoutama
Hawke's Bay Region, New Zealand
Beach break
Tue 23
Wed 24
Thu 25
Fri 26
Sat 27
Tracks
Hawke's Bay Region, New Zealand
Point break
Tue 23
Wed 24
Thu 25
Fri 26
Sat 27

Frequently asked questions

What are good surfing conditions for Last Chance?

Last Chance is usually best with swell from northeast through east-southeast to south (NE-ESE-S), ideally northeast (NE) around 0.6 m / 2 ft to 3 m / 10 ft, west (W) offshore wind, and low to mid tide.

Where is the surf spot Last Chance?

Last Chance is a surf spot in Māhia, Hawke's Bay Region, New Zealand.

What is the surf break like at Last Chance?

Last Chance is a left reef break over boulders. Expect a moderate crowd.

What surfing skill level is Last Chance suitable for?

Last Chance can suit intermediate surfers.

Is Last Chance beginner friendly for surfing?

Last Chance is better suited to intermediate surfers.

How consistent is the surf at Last Chance?

Last Chance is one of the more consistent surf spots in Hawke's Bay Region, New Zealand.

Is there parking for surfing at Last Chance?

Parking around Last Chance: restricted parking.

What surf spots are near Last Chance?

Other nearby surf spots are Mahunga Point, Mahunga Beach, Opoutama, and Tracks.

What swell direction works for surfing at Last Chance?

Last Chance can work with swell from northeast through east-southeast to south (NE-ESE-S); northeast (NE) is usually best.

What swell size works for surfing at Last Chance?

Last Chance usually works with swell around 0.6 m / 2 ft to 3 m / 10 ft.

What wind direction is best for surfing at Last Chance?

West (W) offshore wind is usually best at Last Chance.

What wind direction is offshore for surfing at Last Chance?

West (W) is offshore at Last Chance.

What tide works best for surfing at Last Chance?

Last Chance works best around low to mid tide. A rising tide is usually better here.

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Confidence

Confidence tells you how much the weather models agree on the forecast.

  • High confidence: Models agree closely; forecast is reliable.
  • Medium confidence: Some disagreement; conditions may shift slightly.
  • Low confidence: Models diverge; treat forecast with caution.

We calculate the wind confidence by comparing wind speed, gust and direction from multiple models (like GFS, ECMWF, Arome, and Harmonie) and seeing how closely they match. For wave certainty we compare height, period and direction, also on multiple models. They are weighted, meaning that some models count more than others, depending on how good they are for a certain spot.

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Readme

Welcome! If you’re new to surf forecasting, check out this quick guide.

Forecast Table

The forecast table (the section on the page with all the numbers) is designed to pack as much information in the screen as possible. Although intimidating at first, it will help you make informed decisions about the waves faster, trust me :D. The table consists of roughly four sections, time and predictions, wind, waves, and tides:

🔮 Time and predictions section

Here we show the forecast thour and the overall surf quality prediction. This is determined based on the wave, wind and tide quality prediction. These individual predictions can be found on the forecast map.

💨 Wind section

The first row on the table (with the 💨 icon) shows wind speed, direction and gust. The more the wind speed the more aggressive the color (from blue, green, orange to red).

🌊 Wave section

The waves section consists of three rows, one for wave height and direction, one for period and one for wave energy. Our algorithm chooses the "dominant wave" using spot-adjusted surf energy (depth + directional fit). This is usually the first swell partition, but during local storms it can switch to wind waves. If that happens, values are shown in gray and italic.

🌒 Tide section

The tide section consists of a row with the actual heights per hour (measured at the half hour) and a table that displays the flow of the tide and the extremes (lows and highs).

Forecast map

The forecast map consists of arrows. These arrows represent all wave partitions (swell partitions and wind wave partition) and the wind. This allows you to see things like: a secondary swell or wind waves messes up the surf, or the wind is just a tick offshore so very surfable. Click a metric label in the bottom left to bring that arrow to the front — handy when arrows overlap.

Forecast Cheat Sheet

Short on time? Focus on wave energy. It’s the best single metric to gauge how big and powerful the waves will be.

Click any table cell to jump to that forecast hour. The map will update with forecast arrows, so you can see if wind and swell direction are lining up.

Use the table sidebar to switch units for height and speed.

Log your surf sessions to compare forecasts with real sessions and sharpen future predictions.

Models and Updates

Surfnerd blends multiple global and local wind and swell models using advanced interpolation and spatial techniques to create an "ensemble" forecast. Forecasts are refreshed hourly.

Surf Predictions

Our AI-driven algorithm scores surf quality, shown by green, orange, and gray dots. Each forecast hour is rated for wind, swell, and tide quality, then combined into an overall score. Here’s the scale:

Perfect
Good
Average
Bad or No Data

Session logs also feed the algorithm — the more you log, the smarter your forecasts get.

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