Mahaiula Bay
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Hourly Forecast
Timezone: Pacific/Honolulu
⏱️s.
⚡️kJ
Wednesday 27
Thursday 28
Friday 29
Saturday 30
Sunday 31
Monday 01
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Mahaiula Bay surf guide

Mahaiula Bay is a surf spot located within Kekaha Kai State Park. It's a bit remote, so you can expect some quiet sessions away from the crowds. The surf here tends to wake up with west swells, and it usually breaks over a mix of dead coral and reef. The scenery is pretty nice, with the rugged lava fields surrounding the area, but the spot itself can be less consistent than some others.

When the surf is on, Mahaiula can deliver some hard and fast waves, making it more suitable for intermediate surfers. The best waves usually come in from the west, but it can handle swells coming from the southwest and northwest as well, with sizes around 3 feet (about 1 meter) being ideal. The waves break right, and the spot works well with easterly winds. You’ll get waves at low, mid, and high tide, but finding the right conditions can be a challenge, so keep an eye on the forecast.

If you’re planning to hit Mahaiula, be prepared for a bit of a trek. The access involves a hike through some desolate lava fields, so it's a good idea to bring plenty of water and supplies. Overall, while Mahaiula Bay can be fun, it’s important to know what you’re getting into before you paddle out.

Surf reports and surf forecasts nearby Mahaiula Bay

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Mahaiula Bay
Hawaii, United States
Reef break
Wed 27
Thu 28
Fri 29
Sat 30
Sun 31
Mon 1
Tue 2
Wed 3
Thu 4
Fri 5
Sat 6
Sun 7
Hulihee Palace
Hawaii, United States
Reef break
Wed 27
Thu 28
Fri 29
Sat 30
Sun 31
Mon 1
Tue 2
Wed 3
Thu 4
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Thu 28
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Tue 2
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Sat 6
Sun 7
Banyans
Hawaii, United States
Reef break
Wed 27
Thu 28
Fri 29
Sat 30
Sun 31
Mon 1
Tue 2
Wed 3
Thu 4
Fri 5
Sat 6
Sun 7
Pinetrees
Hawaii, United States
Reef break
Wed 27
Thu 28
Fri 29
Sat 30
Sun 31
Mon 1
Tue 2
Wed 3
Thu 4
Fri 5
Sat 6
Sun 7
Lymans
Hawaii, United States
Point break
Wed 27
Thu 28
Fri 29
Sat 30
Sun 31
Mon 1
Tue 2
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Sat 6
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La'aloa Beach Park
Hawaii, United States
Beach break
Wed 27
Thu 28
Fri 29
Sat 30
Sun 31
Mon 1
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Sat 6
Sun 7
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Readme

Welcome! If you’re new to surf forecasting, check out this quick guide.

Forecast Table

The forecast table (the section on the page with all the numbers) is designed to pack as much information in the screen as possible. Although intimidating at first, it will help you make informed decisions about the waves faster, trust me :D. The table consists of roughly four sections, time and predictions, wind, waves, and tides:

🔮 Time and predictions section

Here we show the forecast thour and the overall surf quality prediction. This is determined based on the wave, wind and tide quality prediction. These individual predictions can be found on the forecast map.

💨 Wind section

The first row on the table (with the 💨 icon) shows wind speed, direction and gust. The more the wind speed the more aggressive the color (from blue, green, orange to red).

🌊 Wave section

The waves section consists of three rows, one for wave height and direction, one for period and one for wave energy. Our algorithm choices the "dominant wave". This is normally the first swell partition, but with heavy local storms it displays the wind waves. If that's the case, we display the numbers in italic and in gray.

🌒 Tide section

The tide section consists of a row with the actual heights per hour (measured at the half hour) and a table that displays the flow of the tide and the extremes (lows and highs).

Forecast map

The forecast map consists of arrows. These arrows represent all wave partitions (swell partitions and wind wave partition) and the wind. This allows you to see things like: a secondary swell or wind waves messes up the surf, or the wind is just a tick offshore so very surfable. Click a metric label in the bottom left to bring that arrow to the front — handy when arrows overlap.

Forecast Cheat Sheet

Short on time? Focus on wave energy. It’s the best single metric to gauge how big and powerful the waves will be.

Click any table cell to jump to that forecast hour. The map will update with forecast arrows, so you can see if wind and swell direction are lining up.

Use the table sidebar to switch units for height and speed.

Log your surf sessions to compare forecasts with real sessions and sharpen future predictions.

Models and Updates

Surfnerd blends multiple global and local wind and swell models using advanced interpolation and spatial techniques to create an "ensemble" forecast. Forecasts are refreshed hourly.

Surf Predictions

Our AI-driven algorithm scores surf quality, shown by green, orange, and gray dots. Each forecast hour is rated for wind, swell, and tide quality, then combined into an overall score. Here’s the scale:

Perfect
Good
Average
Bad or No Data

Session logs also feed the algorithm — the more you log, the smarter your forecasts get.

With Surfnerd, no more "you should have been here yesterday"

Wind certainty

Wind certainty tells you how much the weather models agree on the forecast.

  • High certainty: Models agree closely; forecast is reliable.
  • Medium certainty: Some disagreement; conditions may shift slightly.
  • Low certainty: Models diverge; treat forecast with caution.

We calculate this by comparing wind speed, gust and direction from multiple models (like GFS, ECMWF, Arome, and Harmonie) and seeing how closely they match. They are weighted, meaning that some models count more than others, depending on how good they are for a certain spot.

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