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Surf forecast for Mahaiula Bay

Tide
⏱️s.
⚡️kJ
Timezone:
Pacific/Honolulu
Forecast updated:
19/06, 02:00
Wind: SN UNITY Atmos
(20260619 06z)
Waves: SN UNITY WAVE
(20260619 06z)
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Timeline

Mahaiula Bay Surf Forecast Guide

Mahaiula Bay is a surf spot located within Kekaha Kai State Park. It's a bit remote, so you can expect some quiet sessions away from the crowds. The surf here tends to wake up with west swells, and it usually breaks over a mix of dead coral and reef. The scenery is pretty nice, with the rugged lava fields surrounding the area, but the spot itself can be less consistent than some others.

When the surf is on, Mahaiula can deliver some hard and fast waves, making it more suitable for intermediate surfers. The best waves usually come in from the west, but it can handle swells coming from the southwest and northwest as well, with sizes around 3 feet (about 1 meter) being ideal. The waves break right, and the spot works well with easterly winds. You’ll get waves at low, mid, and high tide, but finding the right conditions can be a challenge, so keep an eye on the forecast.

If you’re planning to hit Mahaiula, be prepared for a bit of a trek. The access involves a hike through some desolate lava fields, so it's a good idea to bring plenty of water and supplies. Overall, while Mahaiula Bay can be fun, it’s important to know what you’re getting into before you paddle out.

Surf spots near Mahaiula Bay

Kiholo Bay
Hawaii, United States
Reef break
Fri 19
Sat 20
Sun 21
Mon 22
Tue 23
Mahaiula Bay
Hawaii, United States
Reef break
Fri 19
Sat 20
Sun 21
Mon 22
Tue 23
Honokohau Beach
Hawaii, United States
Unknown break
Fri 19
Sat 20
Sun 21
Mon 22
Tue 23
Pinetrees
Hawaii, United States
Reef break
Fri 19
Sat 20
Sun 21
Mon 22
Tue 23
Kaiwi Point
Hawaii, United States
Unknown break
Fri 19
Sat 20
Sun 21
Mon 22
Tue 23

Frequently asked questions

What are good surfing conditions for Mahaiula Bay?

Mahaiula Bay is usually best with swell from southwest to northwest (SW-NW), ideally west (W) around 0.9 m / 3 ft to 3 m / 10 ft, east (E) offshore wind, and any tide.

Where is the surf spot Mahaiula Bay?

Mahaiula Bay is a surf spot in Hawaii County, Hawaii, United States.

What is the surf break like at Mahaiula Bay?

Mahaiula Bay is a right reef break over dead coral. Expect a busy crowd.

What surfing skill level is Mahaiula Bay suitable for?

Mahaiula Bay can suit intermediate surfers.

Is Mahaiula Bay beginner friendly for surfing?

Mahaiula Bay is better suited to intermediate surfers.

How consistent is the surf at Mahaiula Bay?

Surf consistency at Mahaiula Bay is more variable.

What surf spots are near Mahaiula Bay?

Other nearby surf spots are Pinetrees, Honokohau Beach, Kiholo Bay, and Kaiwi Point.

What swell direction works for surfing at Mahaiula Bay?

Mahaiula Bay can work with swell from southwest to northwest (SW-NW); west (W) is usually best.

What swell size works for surfing at Mahaiula Bay?

Mahaiula Bay usually works with swell around 0.9 m / 3 ft to 3 m / 10 ft.

What wind direction is best for surfing at Mahaiula Bay?

East (E) offshore wind is usually best at Mahaiula Bay.

What wind direction is offshore for surfing at Mahaiula Bay?

East (E) is offshore at Mahaiula Bay.

What tide works best for surfing at Mahaiula Bay?

Mahaiula Bay can work on all tides. A rising tide is usually better here.

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Readme

Welcome! If you’re new to surf forecasting, check out this quick guide.

Forecast Table

The forecast table (the section on the page with all the numbers) is designed to pack as much information in the screen as possible. Although intimidating at first, it will help you make informed decisions about the waves faster, trust me :D. The table consists of roughly four sections, time and predictions, wind, waves, and tides:

🔮 Time and predictions section

Here we show the forecast thour and the overall surf quality prediction. This is determined based on the wave, wind and tide quality prediction. These individual predictions can be found on the forecast map.

💨 Wind section

The first row on the table (with the 💨 icon) shows wind speed, direction and gust. The more the wind speed the more aggressive the color (from blue, green, orange to red).

🌊 Wave section

The waves section consists of three rows, one for wave height and direction, one for period and one for wave energy. Our algorithm chooses the "dominant wave" using spot-adjusted surf energy (depth + directional fit). This is usually the first swell partition, but during local storms it can switch to wind waves. If that happens, values are shown in gray and italic.

🌒 Tide section

The tide section consists of a row with the actual heights per hour (measured at the half hour) and a table that displays the flow of the tide and the extremes (lows and highs).

Forecast map

The forecast map consists of arrows. These arrows represent all wave partitions (swell partitions and wind wave partition) and the wind. This allows you to see things like: a secondary swell or wind waves messes up the surf, or the wind is just a tick offshore so very surfable. Click a metric label in the bottom left to bring that arrow to the front — handy when arrows overlap.

Forecast Cheat Sheet

Short on time? Focus on wave energy. It’s the best single metric to gauge how big and powerful the waves will be.

Click any table cell to jump to that forecast hour. The map will update with forecast arrows, so you can see if wind and swell direction are lining up.

Use the table sidebar to switch units for height and speed.

Log your surf sessions to compare forecasts with real sessions and sharpen future predictions.

Models and Updates

Surfnerd blends multiple global and local wind and swell models using advanced interpolation and spatial techniques to create an "ensemble" forecast. Forecasts are refreshed hourly.

Surf Predictions

Our AI-driven algorithm scores surf quality, shown by green, orange, and gray dots. Each forecast hour is rated for wind, swell, and tide quality, then combined into an overall score. Here’s the scale:

Perfect
Good
Average
Bad or No Data

Session logs also feed the algorithm — the more you log, the smarter your forecasts get.

With Surfnerd, no more "you should have been here yesterday"

Confidence

Confidence tells you how much the weather models agree on the forecast.

  • High confidence: Models agree closely; forecast is reliable.
  • Medium confidence: Some disagreement; conditions may shift slightly.
  • Low confidence: Models diverge; treat forecast with caution.

We calculate the wind confidence by comparing wind speed, gust and direction from multiple models (like GFS, ECMWF, Arome, and Harmonie) and seeing how closely they match. For wave certainty we compare height, period and direction, also on multiple models. They are weighted, meaning that some models count more than others, depending on how good they are for a certain spot.

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