Manchester State Beach/Alder Creek
Hourly
Confidence
Compare
โฑ๏ธs.
โšก๏ธkJ
Thursday 30
Friday 31
Saturday 01
Sunday 02
Monday 03
Tuesday 04
Tap a forecast cell to explore conditions on the map.
Timezone: America/Los_Angeles
Wind: GFS (20251030 12z)
Waves: GFS WAVE (20251030 12z)

Manchester State Beach/Alder Creek surf guide

Manchester State Beach, also known as Alder Creek, is a five-mile stretch of sandy shoreline thatโ€™s pretty much exposed to the elements. Located at the end of Alder Creek Beach Road, this spot can be a bit windswept and is known for its sharky beachbreak. Youโ€™ll find surfers here primarily during the summer months or when thereโ€™s a small swell running, as it seems to be a go-to when Point Arena isnโ€™t working. Although itโ€™s not the most popular spot, it can be a decent place to catch some waves.

The surf here can be a mixed bag. It works best with south and north swells, handling sizes around 3ft (about 0.9 meters). The waves break over sand, and you can expect both lefts and rights. The preferred winds for this spot come from the southeast, which helps shape up the waves a bit better. It's recommended to surf during mid to high tides, as thatโ€™s when the waves have more potential to deliver a fun ride. However, be aware of some heavy rips, uneven bottom contours, and strong currents that can make things more challenging.

Another thing to mention is the area around Alder Creek. At the northern end of the beach, you may notice a bar forming at the creek mouth, adding some variation to your surfing options. Just be cautious of the shorepound, as it can get pretty gnarly and may catch you off guard. Overall, itโ€™s a spot that locals might check out when conditions are right, especially if you're looking for something off the beaten path.

Surf reports and surf forecasts nearby Manchester State Beach/Alder Creek

Secrets
California, United States
Point break
Thu 30
Fri 31
Sat 1
Sun 2
Mon 3
Tue 4
Wed 5
Thu 6
Fri 7
Sat 8
Sun 9
Mon 10
Black Point Beach (Sea Ranch)
California, United States
Beach break
Thu 30
Fri 31
Sat 1
Sun 2
Mon 3
Tue 4
Wed 5
Thu 6
Fri 7
Sat 8
Sun 9
Mon 10
Gualala Rivermouth
California, United States
Rivermouth break
Thu 30
Fri 31
Sat 1
Sun 2
Mon 3
Tue 4
Wed 5
Thu 6
Fri 7
Sat 8
Sun 9
Mon 10
Virgin Creek
California, United States
Beach break
Thu 30
Fri 31
Sat 1
Sun 2
Mon 3
Tue 4
Wed 5
Thu 6
Fri 7
Sat 8
Sun 9
Mon 10
Navarro Rivermouth
California, United States
Rivermouth break
Thu 30
Fri 31
Sat 1
Sun 2
Mon 3
Tue 4
Wed 5
Thu 6
Fri 7
Sat 8
Sun 9
Mon 10
Big Rivermouth
California, United States
Beach break
Thu 30
Fri 31
Sat 1
Sun 2
Mon 3
Tue 4
Wed 5
Thu 6
Fri 7
Sat 8
Sun 9
Mon 10
Caspar Creek
California, United States
Beach break
Thu 30
Fri 31
Sat 1
Sun 2
Mon 3
Tue 4
Wed 5
Thu 6
Fri 7
Sat 8
Sun 9
Mon 10
Manchester State Beach/Alder Creek
California, United States
Beach break
Thu 30
Fri 31
Sat 1
Sun 2
Mon 3
Tue 4
Wed 5
Thu 6
Fri 7
Sat 8
Sun 9
Mon 10
Schooner Gulch-Moat Creek
California, United States
Beach break
Thu 30
Fri 31
Sat 1
Sun 2
Mon 3
Tue 4
Wed 5
Thu 6
Fri 7
Sat 8
Sun 9
Mon 10
Point Arena (Arena Cove)
California, United States
Reef break
Thu 30
Fri 31
Sat 1
Sun 2
Mon 3
Tue 4
Wed 5
Thu 6
Fri 7
Sat 8
Sun 9
Mon 10
Confidence

Confidence tells you how much the weather models agree on the forecast.

  • High confidence: Models agree closely; forecast is reliable.
  • Medium confidence: Some disagreement; conditions may shift slightly.
  • Low confidence: Models diverge; treat forecast with caution.

We calculate the wind confidence by comparing wind speed, gust and direction from multiple models (like GFS, ECMWF, Arome, and Harmonie) and seeing how closely they match. For wave certainty we compare height, period and direction, also on multiple models. They are weighted, meaning that some models count more than others, depending on how good they are for a certain spot.

Readme

Welcome! If youโ€™re new to surf forecasting, check out this quick guide.

Forecast Table

The forecast table (the section on the page with all the numbers) is designed to pack as much information in the screen as possible. Although intimidating at first, it will help you make informed decisions about the waves faster, trust me :D. The table consists of roughly four sections, time and predictions, wind, waves, and tides:

๐Ÿ”ฎ Time and predictions section

Here we show the forecast thour and the overall surf quality prediction. This is determined based on the wave, wind and tide quality prediction. These individual predictions can be found on the forecast map.

๐Ÿ’จ Wind section

The first row on the table (with the ๐Ÿ’จ icon) shows wind speed, direction and gust. The more the wind speed the more aggressive the color (from blue, green, orange to red).

๐ŸŒŠ Wave section

The waves section consists of three rows, one for wave height and direction, one for period and one for wave energy. Our algorithm choices the "dominant wave". This is normally the first swell partition, but with heavy local storms it displays the wind waves. If that's the case, we display the numbers in italic and in gray.

๐ŸŒ’ Tide section

The tide section consists of a row with the actual heights per hour (measured at the half hour) and a table that displays the flow of the tide and the extremes (lows and highs).

Forecast map

The forecast map consists of arrows. These arrows represent all wave partitions (swell partitions and wind wave partition) and the wind. This allows you to see things like: a secondary swell or wind waves messes up the surf, or the wind is just a tick offshore so very surfable. Click a metric label in the bottom left to bring that arrow to the front โ€” handy when arrows overlap.

Forecast Cheat Sheet

Short on time? Focus on wave energy. Itโ€™s the best single metric to gauge how big and powerful the waves will be.

Click any table cell to jump to that forecast hour. The map will update with forecast arrows, so you can see if wind and swell direction are lining up.

Use the table sidebar to switch units for height and speed.

Log your surf sessions to compare forecasts with real sessions and sharpen future predictions.

Models and Updates

Surfnerd blends multiple global and local wind and swell models using advanced interpolation and spatial techniques to create an "ensemble" forecast. Forecasts are refreshed hourly.

Surf Predictions

Our AI-driven algorithm scores surf quality, shown by green, orange, and gray dots. Each forecast hour is rated for wind, swell, and tide quality, then combined into an overall score. Hereโ€™s the scale:

Perfect
Good
Average
Bad or No Data

Session logs also feed the algorithm โ€” the more you log, the smarter your forecasts get.

With Surfnerd, no more "you should have been here yesterday"

Share
Join Surfnerd for free
  • Save favorite spots
  • Set home spot
  • Log surf sessions
Sign up with AppleSign up with Google
Surfnerd Logo
Join Surfnerd+
Help keep Surfnerd independent and ad-free while we build the future of surf forecasting.
What you get today:
  • Surfnerd
    intelligent
    forecast
    (high accuracy!)
  • Shows
    confidence
    scores
    (more trust)
  • Compare
    models
    (more data)
  • Access all
    models
    (vs GFS only)
  • 1-hour
    forecast steps
    (vs 3-hour)
  • 12-day
    forecast range
    (vs 6-day)
"Great Forecasts. Nothing more, nothing less."
By purchasing the product, you accept the Terms of Use & acknowledge the Privacy policy.
Surfnerd for iOS: Faster loading, smoother experience.
Download on the App Store