Manele Bay
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Hourly Forecast
Timezone: Pacific/Honolulu
โฑ๏ธs.
โšก๏ธkJ
Wednesday 27
Thursday 28
Friday 29
Saturday 30
Sunday 31
Monday 01
Tap a forecast cell to explore conditions on the map.
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Manele Bay surf guide

Manele Bay is a surf spot located on the eastern rim of the bay near Hulopo'e Beach Park, just west of the Manele boat harbor on the south side of Lanai. It's known for its clean and well-groomed conditions when the waves are firing, making it a popular spot among local surfers. The environment here is pristine, providing a nice backdrop for a day on the water.

The wave at Manele mostly comes in as a lefthand point break, working best with south to southwest swells. It can handle swell sizes from about 4ft to 7ft (1.2m to 2.1m) and is generally best during the summer months, although some winter swells can also generate decent waves. The paddle out is easy, though it can get long once the waves pick up. Ideally, the wind direction should come from the north to northeast or even east, keeping the surf clean. While the main wave can provide some excellent barrels and ripable sections, on days when conditions aren't ideal, you can find some shorter peaks just beyond the reef and heavy shorepound suitable for bodysurfing and bodyboarding right off the sandy beach.

As for crowds, it really depends on what the surf is doing. The crowd factor can be hit or miss, so be prepared for variable conditions and fellow surfers. The local vibe here appreciates humility and respect, so keep that in mind if you're new to the spot. Whether you're aiming to shortboard or enjoy bodysurfing, Manele Bay has something to offer intermediate and expert surfers alike, especially during its prime surf seasons in spring and summer.

Surf reports and surf forecasts nearby Manele Bay

Rainbows
Hawaii, United States
Reef break
Wed 27
Thu 28
Fri 29
Sat 30
Sun 31
Mon 1
Tue 2
Wed 3
Thu 4
Fri 5
Sat 6
Sun 7
Olowalu
Hawaii, United States
Reef break
Wed 27
Thu 28
Fri 29
Sat 30
Sun 31
Mon 1
Tue 2
Wed 3
Thu 4
Fri 5
Sat 6
Sun 7
Mala Wharf
Hawaii, United States
Reef break
Wed 27
Thu 28
Fri 29
Sat 30
Sun 31
Mon 1
Tue 2
Wed 3
Thu 4
Fri 5
Sat 6
Sun 7
Lahaina Harbour
Hawaii, United States
Reef break
Wed 27
Thu 28
Fri 29
Sat 30
Sun 31
Mon 1
Tue 2
Wed 3
Thu 4
Fri 5
Sat 6
Sun 7
Lahaina Breakwall
Hawaii, United States
Reef break
Wed 27
Thu 28
Fri 29
Sat 30
Sun 31
Mon 1
Tue 2
Wed 3
Thu 4
Fri 5
Sat 6
Sun 7
Shark Pit
Hawaii, United States
Reef break
Wed 27
Thu 28
Fri 29
Sat 30
Sun 31
Mon 1
Tue 2
Wed 3
Thu 4
Fri 5
Sat 6
Sun 7
Lopa Beach
Hawaii, United States
Reef break
Wed 27
Thu 28
Fri 29
Sat 30
Sun 31
Mon 1
Tue 2
Wed 3
Thu 4
Fri 5
Sat 6
Sun 7
Kaiolohia Bay/Shipwreck Beach
Hawaii, United States
Reef break, Offshore break
Wed 27
Thu 28
Fri 29
Sat 30
Sun 31
Mon 1
Tue 2
Wed 3
Thu 4
Fri 5
Sat 6
Sun 7
Pohakuloa
Hawaii, United States
Reef break, Point break, Offshore break
Wed 27
Thu 28
Fri 29
Sat 30
Sun 31
Mon 1
Tue 2
Wed 3
Thu 4
Fri 5
Sat 6
Sun 7
Manele Bay
Hawaii, United States
Reef break, Point break
Wed 27
Thu 28
Fri 29
Sat 30
Sun 31
Mon 1
Tue 2
Wed 3
Thu 4
Fri 5
Sat 6
Sun 7
Wind certainty

Wind certainty tells you how much the weather models agree on the forecast.

  • High certainty: Models agree closely; forecast is reliable.
  • Medium certainty: Some disagreement; conditions may shift slightly.
  • Low certainty: Models diverge; treat forecast with caution.

We calculate this by comparing wind speed, gust and direction from multiple models (like GFS, ECMWF, Arome, and Harmonie) and seeing how closely they match. They are weighted, meaning that some models count more than others, depending on how good they are for a certain spot.

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Readme

Welcome! If youโ€™re new to surf forecasting, check out this quick guide.

Forecast Table

The forecast table (the section on the page with all the numbers) is designed to pack as much information in the screen as possible. Although intimidating at first, it will help you make informed decisions about the waves faster, trust me :D. The table consists of roughly four sections, time and predictions, wind, waves, and tides:

๐Ÿ”ฎ Time and predictions section

Here we show the forecast thour and the overall surf quality prediction. This is determined based on the wave, wind and tide quality prediction. These individual predictions can be found on the forecast map.

๐Ÿ’จ Wind section

The first row on the table (with the ๐Ÿ’จ icon) shows wind speed, direction and gust. The more the wind speed the more aggressive the color (from blue, green, orange to red).

๐ŸŒŠ Wave section

The waves section consists of three rows, one for wave height and direction, one for period and one for wave energy. Our algorithm choices the "dominant wave". This is normally the first swell partition, but with heavy local storms it displays the wind waves. If that's the case, we display the numbers in italic and in gray.

๐ŸŒ’ Tide section

The tide section consists of a row with the actual heights per hour (measured at the half hour) and a table that displays the flow of the tide and the extremes (lows and highs).

Forecast map

The forecast map consists of arrows. These arrows represent all wave partitions (swell partitions and wind wave partition) and the wind. This allows you to see things like: a secondary swell or wind waves messes up the surf, or the wind is just a tick offshore so very surfable. Click a metric label in the bottom left to bring that arrow to the front โ€” handy when arrows overlap.

Forecast Cheat Sheet

Short on time? Focus on wave energy. Itโ€™s the best single metric to gauge how big and powerful the waves will be.

Click any table cell to jump to that forecast hour. The map will update with forecast arrows, so you can see if wind and swell direction are lining up.

Use the table sidebar to switch units for height and speed.

Log your surf sessions to compare forecasts with real sessions and sharpen future predictions.

Models and Updates

Surfnerd blends multiple global and local wind and swell models using advanced interpolation and spatial techniques to create an "ensemble" forecast. Forecasts are refreshed hourly.

Surf Predictions

Our AI-driven algorithm scores surf quality, shown by green, orange, and gray dots. Each forecast hour is rated for wind, swell, and tide quality, then combined into an overall score. Hereโ€™s the scale:

Perfect
Good
Average
Bad or No Data

Session logs also feed the algorithm โ€” the more you log, the smarter your forecasts get.

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