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Surf forecast for Manele Bay

Map showing Manele Bay
Wwvs
0.2m 2s.
0kJ
Swl 3
0.8m 5s.
43kJ
Swl 2
0.8m 5s.
51kJ
Swl 1
0.9m 14s.
483kJ
Wnd
10km/h
15km/h
Tide
๐Ÿ’จkm/h
๐ŸŒŠm
โฑ๏ธs.
โšก๏ธkJ
Timezone:
Pacific/Honolulu
Forecast updated:
08/10, 20:00
Wind: SN UNITY Atmos
(20261009 06z)
Waves: SN UNITY WAVE
(20261009 06z)

Weather

Friday 09/10

Water temperature
27ยฐC
Daily average
Air temperatureBeta
Over water
26โ€“27ยฐC
On shore
25โ€“27ยฐC
Moon phase
Waning crescent
1% illuminated
Closest moon phase
New moon
Sat 10/10 05:51
Tide range
0.0m - 0.7m
Low 21:07 ยท High 03:11
Next spring tide
Sun 11/10
0.8m range
Next neap tide
Fri 16/10
0.4m range

Timeline

Manele Bay Surf Forecast Guide

Overview

Manele Bay is a left-hand reef point on the eastern rim of the bay, on the south side of Lanai. It's a fickle spot, but when it turns on it's genuinely good. The wave breaks over lava, rock and coral in a pristine, protected setting.

When It Works

Summer south swells are the draw. Lines wrap around the point, wedge up and peak, often with a barrel, then peel all the way in on a clean, workable face. The spot takes swell from south-southeast through south to west (SSE-S-W), with south the best match. It works from 1.2 m / 4 ft to 2.1 m / 7 ft, and though the main season runs through spring, summer and autumn, some of the bigger west-northwest winter swells can wrap a little energy into the bay. When the point isn't firing, shorter peaks break just past the reef edge, and there's heavy shorepound in the cove for bodysurfing and bodyboarding.

Wind and Tide

Look for northeast offshore wind to groom it clean, especially as the spot turns into the easterly trades. The workable wind window runs north through east-northeast to east-southeast (N-ENE-ESE). It can work across low, mid and high tide, with a rising tide generally the better call.

Local Tips

This one suits intermediate and expert surfers. Shortboards, bodyboards, skimboards and bodysurfing all have a place here, with the point holding rippable lines and the shorepound offering an option on smaller days. Expect a fairly quiet, somewhat reserved lineup, where humility and respect go a long way. As a point break the rides get long, and so do the paddles once it gets bigger. Keep an eye on the reef and current.

Access

Reach it through Hulopo'e Beach Park, the bay just west of the Manele boat harbor on the south side of Lanai.

Surf spots near Manele Bay

Shark Pit
Hawaii, United States
Reef break
Fri 9
Sat 10
Sun 11
Mon 12
Tue 13
Kaiolohia Bay/Shipwreck Beach
Hawaii, United States
Reef break, Offshore break
Fri 9
Sat 10
Sun 11
Mon 12
Tue 13
Lopa Beach
Hawaii, United States
Reef break
Fri 9
Sat 10
Sun 11
Mon 12
Tue 13
Pohakuloa
Hawaii, United States
Reef break, Point break, Offshore break
Fri 9
Sat 10
Sun 11
Mon 12
Tue 13
Manele Bay
Hawaii, United States
Reef break, Point break
Fri 9
Sat 10
Sun 11
Mon 12
Tue 13

Frequently asked questions

What are good surfing conditions for Manele Bay?

Manele Bay is usually best with south-southeast through south to west (SSE-S-W) swell around 1.2 m / 4 ft to 2.1 m / 7 ft, wind from north through east-northeast to east-southeast (N-ENE-ESE), with northeast (NE) offshore, and any tide.

Where is the surf spot Manele Bay?

Manele Bay is a surf spot in Manele, Hawaii, United States.

What is the surf break like at Manele Bay?

Wave types at Manele Bay are reef and point. Waves at Manele Bay break left. Manele Bay breaks over lava, rock, and coral. Expect a fairly quiet crowd and a somewhat reserved lineup.

What season is best for surfing Manele Bay?

The main surf season at Manele Bay is spring, summer, and autumn.

What surfing skill level is Manele Bay suitable for?

Manele Bay can suit intermediate and expert surfers.

Is Manele Bay beginner friendly for surfing?

Manele Bay is better suited to intermediate and expert surfers.

What surfboards work at Manele Bay?

Shortboard, Bodyboard, Skimming, and Bodysurfing are common choices at Manele Bay.

What surf spots are near Manele Bay?

Other nearby surf spots are Lopa Beach, Kaiolohia Bay/Shipwreck Beach, Pohakuloa, and Shark Pit.

What swell direction works for surfing at Manele Bay?

Manele Bay can work with swell from south-southeast through south to west (SSE-S-W).

What swell size works for surfing at Manele Bay?

Manele Bay usually works with swell around 1.2 m / 4 ft to 2.1 m / 7 ft.

What wind direction is best for surfing at Manele Bay?

Manele Bay usually works with wind from north through east-northeast to east-southeast (N-ENE-ESE); northeast (NE) is offshore.

What wind direction is offshore for surfing at Manele Bay?

Northeast (NE) is offshore at Manele Bay.

What tide works best for surfing at Manele Bay?

Manele Bay can work on all tides. A rising tide is usually better here.

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Readme

Welcome! If youโ€™re new to surf forecasting, check out this quick guide.

Forecast Table

The forecast table (the section on the page with all the numbers) is designed to pack as much information in the screen as possible. Although intimidating at first, it will help you make informed decisions about the waves faster, trust me :D. The table consists of roughly four sections, time and predictions, wind, waves, and tides:

๐Ÿ”ฎ Time and predictions section

Here we show the forecast thour and the overall surf quality prediction. This is determined based on the wave, wind and tide quality prediction. These individual predictions can be found on the forecast map.

๐Ÿ’จ Wind section

The first row on the table (with the ๐Ÿ’จ icon) shows wind speed, direction and gust. The more the wind speed the more aggressive the color (from blue, green, orange to red).

๐ŸŒŠ Wave section

The waves section consists of three rows, one for wave height and direction, one for period and one for wave energy. Our algorithm chooses the "dominant wave" using spot-adjusted surf energy (depth + directional fit). This is usually the first swell partition, but during local storms it can switch to wind waves. If that happens, values are shown in gray and italic.

๐ŸŽฏ Model agreement

The small letter in the wind and wave cells shows how closely the weather models we blend agree for that hour.

  • H, the models line up closely.
  • M, the models differ somewhat, so conditions may still shift.
  • L, the models disagree, so check again closer to your session.
  • A dash means only one model covered this hour, so there was nothing to compare.

For wind we compare each model's wind vector, plus gusts where every model reports them. For waves we compare height, period and direction of the matched swell systems.

It is a measure of model agreement, not a probability that the forecast is right.

๐ŸŒ’ Tide section

The tide section consists of a row with the actual heights per hour (measured at the half hour) and a table that displays the flow of the tide and the extremes (lows and highs).

Forecast map

The forecast map consists of arrows. These arrows represent all wave partitions (swell partitions and wind wave partition) and the wind. This allows you to see things like: a secondary swell or wind waves messes up the surf, or the wind is just a tick offshore so very surfable. Click a metric label in the bottom left to bring that arrow to the front โ€” handy when arrows overlap.

Forecast Cheat Sheet

Short on time? Focus on wave energy. Itโ€™s the best single metric to gauge how big and powerful the waves will be.

Click any table cell to jump to that forecast hour. The map will update with forecast arrows, so you can see if wind and swell direction are lining up.

Use the table sidebar to switch units for height and speed.

Log your surf sessions to compare forecasts with real sessions and sharpen future predictions.

Models and Updates

Surfnerd blends multiple global and local wind and swell models using advanced interpolation and spatial techniques to create an "ensemble" forecast. Forecasts are refreshed hourly.

Surf Predictions

Our AI-driven algorithm scores surf quality, shown by green, orange, and gray dots. Each forecast hour is rated for wind, swell, and tide quality, then combined into an overall score. Hereโ€™s the scale:

Perfect
Good
Average
Bad or No Data

Session logs also feed the algorithm โ€” the more you log, the smarter your forecasts get.

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