Mangawhai Heads
Hourly
Confidence
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Timezone: Pacific/Auckland
Wind: GFS (20251102 00z)
Waves: GFS WAVE (20251102 00z)

Mangawhai Heads surf guide

Mangawhai Heads is a popular surf spot located on the east coast of New Zealand. It's known for being a favorite among locals and visitors alike, thanks to its consistent waves and beautiful scenery. The area features a rivermouth that enhances the surf conditions, attracting a good number of surfers ready to hit the water. The vibe here can get pretty lively, especially on good days when the waves are up.

The best surfing conditions at Mangawhai Heads usually happen with solid NE swells, especially at lower tides. The spot offers some decent lefts and rights, with the rivermouth creating fun wave shapes. It can handle swell sizes starting from about 1 foot (0.3 meters) and up, making it ideal for intermediate surfers. If you're looking to catch some waves, aim for low to mid-tide for the best experience. Winds from the west are preferable, as they help clean up the waves, making the ride smoother.

This area tends to be crowded, especially since itโ€™s quite reliable for getting waves on the east coast. So, be prepared for some competition out in the water. Itโ€™s good to have a solid skill level, as the crowd can get a bit aggressive when the conditions are on point. If youโ€™re an intermediate surfer, you'll likely find it both challenging and enjoyable here.

Surf reports and surf forecasts nearby Mangawhai Heads

Mimiwhangata Bay
Northland, New Zealand
Beach break
Sun 2
Mon 3
Tue 4
Wed 5
Thu 6
Fri 7
Sat 8
Sun 9
Mon 10
Tue 11
Wed 12
Thu 13
Whananaki North
Northland, New Zealand
Rivermouth break
Sun 2
Mon 3
Tue 4
Wed 5
Thu 6
Fri 7
Sat 8
Sun 9
Mon 10
Tue 11
Wed 12
Thu 13
Ngunguru Bar
Northland, New Zealand
Rivermouth break
Sun 2
Mon 3
Tue 4
Wed 5
Thu 6
Fri 7
Sat 8
Sun 9
Mon 10
Tue 11
Wed 12
Thu 13
Pataua Bar
Northland, New Zealand
Rivermouth break
Sun 2
Mon 3
Tue 4
Wed 5
Thu 6
Fri 7
Sat 8
Sun 9
Mon 10
Tue 11
Wed 12
Thu 13
Mangawhai Heads
Northland, New Zealand
Rivermouth break
Sun 2
Mon 3
Tue 4
Wed 5
Thu 6
Fri 7
Sat 8
Sun 9
Mon 10
Tue 11
Wed 12
Thu 13
Forestry
Auckland, New Zealand
Beach break
Sun 2
Mon 3
Tue 4
Wed 5
Thu 6
Fri 7
Sat 8
Sun 9
Mon 10
Tue 11
Wed 12
Thu 13
Waipu Bar
Northland, New Zealand
Rivermouth break
Sun 2
Mon 3
Tue 4
Wed 5
Thu 6
Fri 7
Sat 8
Sun 9
Mon 10
Tue 11
Wed 12
Thu 13
Orewa Beach/Bar
Auckland, New Zealand
Rivermouth break
Sun 2
Mon 3
Tue 4
Wed 5
Thu 6
Fri 7
Sat 8
Sun 9
Mon 10
Tue 11
Wed 12
Thu 13
Long Bay
Auckland, New Zealand
Reef break
Sun 2
Mon 3
Tue 4
Wed 5
Thu 6
Fri 7
Sat 8
Sun 9
Mon 10
Tue 11
Wed 12
Thu 13
Pouto
Northland, New Zealand
Point break
Sun 2
Mon 3
Tue 4
Wed 5
Thu 6
Fri 7
Sat 8
Sun 9
Mon 10
Tue 11
Wed 12
Thu 13

Readme

Welcome! If youโ€™re new to surf forecasting, check out this quick guide.

Forecast Table

The forecast table (the section on the page with all the numbers) is designed to pack as much information in the screen as possible. Although intimidating at first, it will help you make informed decisions about the waves faster, trust me :D. The table consists of roughly four sections, time and predictions, wind, waves, and tides:

๐Ÿ”ฎ Time and predictions section

Here we show the forecast thour and the overall surf quality prediction. This is determined based on the wave, wind and tide quality prediction. These individual predictions can be found on the forecast map.

๐Ÿ’จ Wind section

The first row on the table (with the ๐Ÿ’จ icon) shows wind speed, direction and gust. The more the wind speed the more aggressive the color (from blue, green, orange to red).

๐ŸŒŠ Wave section

The waves section consists of three rows, one for wave height and direction, one for period and one for wave energy. Our algorithm choices the "dominant wave". This is normally the first swell partition, but with heavy local storms it displays the wind waves. If that's the case, we display the numbers in italic and in gray.

๐ŸŒ’ Tide section

The tide section consists of a row with the actual heights per hour (measured at the half hour) and a table that displays the flow of the tide and the extremes (lows and highs).

Forecast map

The forecast map consists of arrows. These arrows represent all wave partitions (swell partitions and wind wave partition) and the wind. This allows you to see things like: a secondary swell or wind waves messes up the surf, or the wind is just a tick offshore so very surfable. Click a metric label in the bottom left to bring that arrow to the front โ€” handy when arrows overlap.

Forecast Cheat Sheet

Short on time? Focus on wave energy. Itโ€™s the best single metric to gauge how big and powerful the waves will be.

Click any table cell to jump to that forecast hour. The map will update with forecast arrows, so you can see if wind and swell direction are lining up.

Use the table sidebar to switch units for height and speed.

Log your surf sessions to compare forecasts with real sessions and sharpen future predictions.

Models and Updates

Surfnerd blends multiple global and local wind and swell models using advanced interpolation and spatial techniques to create an "ensemble" forecast. Forecasts are refreshed hourly.

Surf Predictions

Our AI-driven algorithm scores surf quality, shown by green, orange, and gray dots. Each forecast hour is rated for wind, swell, and tide quality, then combined into an overall score. Hereโ€™s the scale:

Perfect
Good
Average
Bad or No Data

Session logs also feed the algorithm โ€” the more you log, the smarter your forecasts get.

With Surfnerd, no more "you should have been here yesterday"

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Confidence

Confidence tells you how much the weather models agree on the forecast.

  • High confidence: Models agree closely; forecast is reliable.
  • Medium confidence: Some disagreement; conditions may shift slightly.
  • Low confidence: Models diverge; treat forecast with caution.

We calculate the wind confidence by comparing wind speed, gust and direction from multiple models (like GFS, ECMWF, Arome, and Harmonie) and seeing how closely they match. For wave certainty we compare height, period and direction, also on multiple models. They are weighted, meaning that some models count more than others, depending on how good they are for a certain spot.

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