Melbourne Beach
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Hourly Forecast
Timezone: America/New_York
⏱️s.
⚡️kJ
Saturday 13
Sunday 14
Monday 15
Tuesday 16
Wednesday 17
Thursday 18
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Melbourne Beach surf guide

Melbourne Beach is a cool spot located in one of Brevard's older beach communities. It's a neighborhood that many surfers enjoy because of its local vibe. The main surf break can be found at the end of Ocean Avenue, which is easy to find at the only traffic light where A1A heads east before turning south again. Just be cautious on the roads here, especially on Oak Street, as it’s a family-friendly area with schools nearby, so police keep a close watch on speeders.

The surf at Ocean Avenue is generally average but can be a good time depending on the conditions. The beach works well with swells from the northeast to east-northeast. It can handle a variety of swell sizes, usually between about 0.6 to 3.6 meters (2 to 12 feet). When the waves are up, it can get fun for more experienced surfers, but it’s also beginner-friendly, especially when it's smaller at waist to chest height. The waves can break both left and right over sand, and the bottom depth helps maintain rideability even during larger swells. Take note that the best time to surf is during low to mid tides with a west wind, making it a reliable spot for boards like shortboards, funboards, longboards, and fish.

Parking can be a hassle since there’s a small public lot at the end of Ocean Avenue that now charges non-residents. As for the crowd, you might find a small local crew out there, and the vibe has become mellower than it used to be. Just keep in mind to stay aware of potential hazards like sharks during the fall mullet run. Overall, the spot can fluctuate a bit with changing sandbanks, so you might find that it varies day-to-day, making it a bit unpredictable yet often rewarding.

Surf reports and surf forecasts nearby Melbourne Beach

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Beach break
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Readme

Welcome! If you’re new to surf forecasting, check out this quick guide.

Forecast Table

The forecast table (the section on the page with all the numbers) is designed to pack as much information in the screen as possible. Although intimidating at first, it will help you make informed decisions about the waves faster, trust me :D. The table consists of roughly four sections, time and predictions, wind, waves, and tides:

🔮 Time and predictions section

Here we show the forecast thour and the overall surf quality prediction. This is determined based on the wave, wind and tide quality prediction. These individual predictions can be found on the forecast map.

💨 Wind section

The first row on the table (with the 💨 icon) shows wind speed, direction and gust. The more the wind speed the more aggressive the color (from blue, green, orange to red).

🌊 Wave section

The waves section consists of three rows, one for wave height and direction, one for period and one for wave energy. Our algorithm choices the "dominant wave". This is normally the first swell partition, but with heavy local storms it displays the wind waves. If that's the case, we display the numbers in italic and in gray.

🌒 Tide section

The tide section consists of a row with the actual heights per hour (measured at the half hour) and a table that displays the flow of the tide and the extremes (lows and highs).

Forecast map

The forecast map consists of arrows. These arrows represent all wave partitions (swell partitions and wind wave partition) and the wind. This allows you to see things like: a secondary swell or wind waves messes up the surf, or the wind is just a tick offshore so very surfable. Click a metric label in the bottom left to bring that arrow to the front — handy when arrows overlap.

Forecast Cheat Sheet

Short on time? Focus on wave energy. It’s the best single metric to gauge how big and powerful the waves will be.

Click any table cell to jump to that forecast hour. The map will update with forecast arrows, so you can see if wind and swell direction are lining up.

Use the table sidebar to switch units for height and speed.

Log your surf sessions to compare forecasts with real sessions and sharpen future predictions.

Models and Updates

Surfnerd blends multiple global and local wind and swell models using advanced interpolation and spatial techniques to create an "ensemble" forecast. Forecasts are refreshed hourly.

Surf Predictions

Our AI-driven algorithm scores surf quality, shown by green, orange, and gray dots. Each forecast hour is rated for wind, swell, and tide quality, then combined into an overall score. Here’s the scale:

Perfect
Good
Average
Bad or No Data

Session logs also feed the algorithm — the more you log, the smarter your forecasts get.

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Wind certainty

Wind certainty tells you how much the weather models agree on the forecast.

  • High certainty: Models agree closely; forecast is reliable.
  • Medium certainty: Some disagreement; conditions may shift slightly.
  • Low certainty: Models diverge; treat forecast with caution.

We calculate this by comparing wind speed, gust and direction from multiple models (like GFS, ECMWF, Arome, and Harmonie) and seeing how closely they match. They are weighted, meaning that some models count more than others, depending on how good they are for a certain spot.

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