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Surf forecast for Pavilions

Tide
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Timezone:
Pacific/Honolulu
Forecast updated:
23/06, 20:00
Wind: SN UNITY Atmos
(20260624 06z)
Waves: SN UNITY WAVE
(20260624 06z)
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Pavilions Surf Forecast Guide

Pavilions is a surf spot located on the eastern point, known for its wind protection and easy access back out through a defined channel. This spot offers a mix of waves that can be enjoyable yet challenging depending on the conditions. It's particularly favored by local surfers, who often flock here when the waves are right.

The waves at Pavilions tend to work best on a north swell, with good wave action from the northwest and northeast directions as well. It handles swell sizes starting from about 3 feet (0.9 meters) and can provide some fun, ripable waves, especially on lower tides. The waves break over an uneven reef, creating right-breaking waves that can be accessed easily. For the best results, southeast winds are preferred, and intermediate surfers will find the conditions manageable here.

Parking is available up on the lookout, making it convenient for surfers visiting Pavilions. Just be aware that when the waves get up to double overhead, the spot tends to get a little too heavy, especially as Middles picks up. It's a good idea to keep an eye on the local crowd, as this spot can get pretty busy with regulars. Overall, Pavilions is a solid choice for those looking to enjoy some consistent surf in a friendly atmosphere.

Surf spots near Pavilions

Pavilions
Hawaii, United States
Reef break
Wed 24
Thu 25
Fri 26
Sat 27
Sun 28
Hookipa
Hawaii, United States
Reef break
Wed 24
Thu 25
Fri 26
Sat 27
Sun 28
Kuau
Hawaii, United States
Reef break
Wed 24
Thu 25
Fri 26
Sat 27
Sun 28
Tavares Bay
Hawaii, United States
Unknown break
Wed 24
Thu 25
Fri 26
Sat 27
Sun 28
Baldwin Beach Park
Hawaii, United States
Beach break
Wed 24
Thu 25
Fri 26
Sat 27
Sun 28

Frequently asked questions

What are good surfing conditions for Pavilions?

Pavilions is usually best with swell from northwest to northeast (NW-NE), ideally north (N) around 0.9 m / 3 ft to 3.7 m / 12 ft, southeast (SE) offshore wind, and any tide.

Where is the surf spot Pavilions?

Pavilions is a surf spot in Paia, Hawaii, United States.

What is the surf break like at Pavilions?

Pavilions is a right reef break over uneven reef. Expect a very busy crowd.

What surfing skill level is Pavilions suitable for?

Pavilions can suit intermediate surfers.

Is Pavilions beginner friendly for surfing?

Pavilions is better suited to intermediate surfers.

How consistent is the surf at Pavilions?

Pavilions is one of the more consistent surf spots in Hawaii, United States.

What facilities are available for surfers at Pavilions?

Facilities for surfers at Pavilions: restrooms, showers, and lifeguard.

Is there parking for surfing at Pavilions?

Parking around Pavilions: free parking, paid parking, and car park.

What surf spots are near Pavilions?

Other nearby surf spots are Hookipa, Kuau, Tavares Bay, and Baldwin Beach Park.

What swell direction works for surfing at Pavilions?

Pavilions can work with swell from northwest to northeast (NW-NE); north (N) is usually best.

What swell size works for surfing at Pavilions?

Pavilions usually works with swell around 0.9 m / 3 ft to 3.7 m / 12 ft.

What wind direction is best for surfing at Pavilions?

Southeast (SE) offshore wind is usually best at Pavilions.

What wind direction is offshore for surfing at Pavilions?

Southeast (SE) is offshore at Pavilions.

What tide works best for surfing at Pavilions?

Pavilions can work on all tides. A rising tide is usually better here.

Readme

Welcome! If youโ€™re new to surf forecasting, check out this quick guide.

Forecast Table

The forecast table (the section on the page with all the numbers) is designed to pack as much information in the screen as possible. Although intimidating at first, it will help you make informed decisions about the waves faster, trust me :D. The table consists of roughly four sections, time and predictions, wind, waves, and tides:

๐Ÿ”ฎ Time and predictions section

Here we show the forecast thour and the overall surf quality prediction. This is determined based on the wave, wind and tide quality prediction. These individual predictions can be found on the forecast map.

๐Ÿ’จ Wind section

The first row on the table (with the ๐Ÿ’จ icon) shows wind speed, direction and gust. The more the wind speed the more aggressive the color (from blue, green, orange to red).

๐ŸŒŠ Wave section

The waves section consists of three rows, one for wave height and direction, one for period and one for wave energy. Our algorithm chooses the "dominant wave" using spot-adjusted surf energy (depth + directional fit). This is usually the first swell partition, but during local storms it can switch to wind waves. If that happens, values are shown in gray and italic.

๐ŸŒ’ Tide section

The tide section consists of a row with the actual heights per hour (measured at the half hour) and a table that displays the flow of the tide and the extremes (lows and highs).

Forecast map

The forecast map consists of arrows. These arrows represent all wave partitions (swell partitions and wind wave partition) and the wind. This allows you to see things like: a secondary swell or wind waves messes up the surf, or the wind is just a tick offshore so very surfable. Click a metric label in the bottom left to bring that arrow to the front โ€” handy when arrows overlap.

Forecast Cheat Sheet

Short on time? Focus on wave energy. Itโ€™s the best single metric to gauge how big and powerful the waves will be.

Click any table cell to jump to that forecast hour. The map will update with forecast arrows, so you can see if wind and swell direction are lining up.

Use the table sidebar to switch units for height and speed.

Log your surf sessions to compare forecasts with real sessions and sharpen future predictions.

Models and Updates

Surfnerd blends multiple global and local wind and swell models using advanced interpolation and spatial techniques to create an "ensemble" forecast. Forecasts are refreshed hourly.

Surf Predictions

Our AI-driven algorithm scores surf quality, shown by green, orange, and gray dots. Each forecast hour is rated for wind, swell, and tide quality, then combined into an overall score. Hereโ€™s the scale:

Perfect
Good
Average
Bad or No Data

Session logs also feed the algorithm โ€” the more you log, the smarter your forecasts get.

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Confidence

Confidence tells you how much the weather models agree on the forecast.

  • High confidence: Models agree closely; forecast is reliable.
  • Medium confidence: Some disagreement; conditions may shift slightly.
  • Low confidence: Models diverge; treat forecast with caution.

We calculate the wind confidence by comparing wind speed, gust and direction from multiple models (like GFS, ECMWF, Arome, and Harmonie) and seeing how closely they match. For wave certainty we compare height, period and direction, also on multiple models. They are weighted, meaning that some models count more than others, depending on how good they are for a certain spot.