Pavones
Hourly
Confidence
Compare
โฑ๏ธs.
โšก๏ธkJ
Tuesday 28
Wednesday 29
Thursday 30
Friday 31
Saturday 01
Sunday 02
Tap a forecast cell to explore conditions on the map.
Timezone: America/Costa_Rica

Pavones surf guide

Pavones is known for its long left point break, often touted as one of the best spots for experienced surfers. Located in the Golfo Dulce area, it has become a popular destination for both locals and expats, particularly when the swells cooperate. The surf can be a bit hit or miss since it's tucked deep in the bay, where getting consistent waves can be tricky unless thereโ€™s a solid southern swell. Itโ€™s a place that attracts those looking for a challenge, so be prepared for some company in the lineup.

The wave offers rides that can stretch up to a kilometer long when the conditions are right, especially with swells from the south and southwest measuring between 5 feet (1.5 meters) to 10 feet (3 meters). You can expect some fun sections to carve, especially at high tide. The takeoff zone is typically at the top of the point, close to the river mouth, where the surf can get hollow and critical. As you ride down towards the rivermouth, the wave picks up speed, requiring some quick maneuvers. When it's smaller, a higher tide is better to link up the rides, but once you get a few feet overhead, low tide tends to be preferred for a more hollow experience.

Access to Pavones is straightforward, right behind the soccer field. The water clarity during the dry season is pretty nice, with blue hues that attract surfers. However, the crowd factor can get pretty heavy, especially when the surf is on. Both Ticos and expats know the break well and arenโ€™t shy about showcasing their local knowledge. Just keep in mind that the conditions can change quickly, and while it can be an incredible spot when itโ€™s firing, there are times when you might find it lacking. So, be sure youโ€™re ready for both the highs and lows of surfing here.

Surf reports and surf forecasts nearby Pavones

Zancudo
Puntarenas Province, Costa Rica
Beach break
Tue 28
Wed 29
Thu 30
Fri 31
Sat 1
Sun 2
Mon 3
Tue 4
Wed 5
Thu 6
Fri 7
Sat 8
Carate
Unknown Region, Unknown Country
Beach break
Tue 28
Wed 29
Thu 30
Fri 31
Sat 1
Sun 2
Mon 3
Tue 4
Wed 5
Thu 6
Fri 7
Sat 8
Pavones
Puntarenas Province, Costa Rica
Point break
Tue 28
Wed 29
Thu 30
Fri 31
Sat 1
Sun 2
Mon 3
Tue 4
Wed 5
Thu 6
Fri 7
Sat 8
Pan Dulce
Unknown Region, Unknown Country
Reef break
Tue 28
Wed 29
Thu 30
Fri 31
Sat 1
Sun 2
Mon 3
Tue 4
Wed 5
Thu 6
Fri 7
Sat 8
Backwash (Golfo Dulce)
Unknown Region, Unknown Country
Reef break
Tue 28
Wed 29
Thu 30
Fri 31
Sat 1
Sun 2
Mon 3
Tue 4
Wed 5
Thu 6
Fri 7
Sat 8
Matapalo
Puntarenas Province, Costa Rica
Reef break, Point break
Tue 28
Wed 29
Thu 30
Fri 31
Sat 1
Sun 2
Mon 3
Tue 4
Wed 5
Thu 6
Fri 7
Sat 8
Hog Hole
Unknown Region, Unknown Country
Point break
Tue 28
Wed 29
Thu 30
Fri 31
Sat 1
Sun 2
Mon 3
Tue 4
Wed 5
Thu 6
Fri 7
Sat 8
Punta Banco
Unknown Region, Unknown Country
Reef break
Tue 28
Wed 29
Thu 30
Fri 31
Sat 1
Sun 2
Mon 3
Tue 4
Wed 5
Thu 6
Fri 7
Sat 8
Eclipse
Provincia De Puntarenas, Costa Rica
Rivermouth break
Tue 28
Wed 29
Thu 30
Fri 31
Sat 1
Sun 2
Mon 3
Tue 4
Wed 5
Thu 6
Fri 7
Sat 8
Punta Burica
Provincia De Puntarenas, Costa Rica
Reef break
Tue 28
Wed 29
Thu 30
Fri 31
Sat 1
Sun 2
Mon 3
Tue 4
Wed 5
Thu 6
Fri 7
Sat 8
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Confidence

Confidence tells you how much the weather models agree on the forecast.

  • High confidence: Models agree closely; forecast is reliable.
  • Medium confidence: Some disagreement; conditions may shift slightly.
  • Low confidence: Models diverge; treat forecast with caution.

We calculate the wind confidence by comparing wind speed, gust and direction from multiple models (like GFS, ECMWF, Arome, and Harmonie) and seeing how closely they match. For wave certainty we compare height, period and direction, also on multiple models. They are weighted, meaning that some models count more than others, depending on how good they are for a certain spot.

Readme

Welcome! If youโ€™re new to surf forecasting, check out this quick guide.

Forecast Table

The forecast table (the section on the page with all the numbers) is designed to pack as much information in the screen as possible. Although intimidating at first, it will help you make informed decisions about the waves faster, trust me :D. The table consists of roughly four sections, time and predictions, wind, waves, and tides:

๐Ÿ”ฎ Time and predictions section

Here we show the forecast thour and the overall surf quality prediction. This is determined based on the wave, wind and tide quality prediction. These individual predictions can be found on the forecast map.

๐Ÿ’จ Wind section

The first row on the table (with the ๐Ÿ’จ icon) shows wind speed, direction and gust. The more the wind speed the more aggressive the color (from blue, green, orange to red).

๐ŸŒŠ Wave section

The waves section consists of three rows, one for wave height and direction, one for period and one for wave energy. Our algorithm choices the "dominant wave". This is normally the first swell partition, but with heavy local storms it displays the wind waves. If that's the case, we display the numbers in italic and in gray.

๐ŸŒ’ Tide section

The tide section consists of a row with the actual heights per hour (measured at the half hour) and a table that displays the flow of the tide and the extremes (lows and highs).

Forecast map

The forecast map consists of arrows. These arrows represent all wave partitions (swell partitions and wind wave partition) and the wind. This allows you to see things like: a secondary swell or wind waves messes up the surf, or the wind is just a tick offshore so very surfable. Click a metric label in the bottom left to bring that arrow to the front โ€” handy when arrows overlap.

Forecast Cheat Sheet

Short on time? Focus on wave energy. Itโ€™s the best single metric to gauge how big and powerful the waves will be.

Click any table cell to jump to that forecast hour. The map will update with forecast arrows, so you can see if wind and swell direction are lining up.

Use the table sidebar to switch units for height and speed.

Log your surf sessions to compare forecasts with real sessions and sharpen future predictions.

Models and Updates

Surfnerd blends multiple global and local wind and swell models using advanced interpolation and spatial techniques to create an "ensemble" forecast. Forecasts are refreshed hourly.

Surf Predictions

Our AI-driven algorithm scores surf quality, shown by green, orange, and gray dots. Each forecast hour is rated for wind, swell, and tide quality, then combined into an overall score. Hereโ€™s the scale:

Perfect
Good
Average
Bad or No Data

Session logs also feed the algorithm โ€” the more you log, the smarter your forecasts get.

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