The Bowl (Tongatapu)
Hourly
Confidence
Compare
⏱️s.
⚡️kJ
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Tap a forecast cell to explore conditions on the map.
Timezone: Pacific/Tongatapu
Wind: GFS (20251102 18z)
Waves: GFS WAVE (20251102 18z)

The Bowl (Tongatapu) surf guide

The Bowl is a surf spot located on Tongatapu, with a reputation for offering some solid waves when the conditions are right. It doesn’t break often, but when it does, it can deliver an exceptional ride. This spot is best suited for expert surfers, as it can get pretty challenging. The take-off zone is right next to the outside peak of Lighthouse, which helps surfers get into the zone quickly when the swell is up.

When it comes to surfing The Bowl, the optimal swell direction is southwest, with waves breaking over live coral. It can handle swell sizes starting from 3 feet (about 1 meter) and can go much bigger. The waves are predominantly left-handers, making it a great spot for those who prefer going that way. It's rideable at low, mid, and high tides, but most surfers feel more comfortable at higher tides for safety. A southeast wind is generally preferable, helping to groom the waves for a better ride. Overall, the bowl has a heavy section that can remind some of Hawaii’s Ala Moana when the waves are firing.

Keep in mind that when The Bowl is on, it’s quite a ride but definitely a spot that calls for expert skills due to its conditions. Knowing when to hit it is key, as it doesn’t break every day. If you’re overly keen, you might want to paddle out even at low tide, but be aware that it can get tricky. Just make sure you’ve got the right skills to handle the wave and start your session safely!

Surf reports and surf forecasts nearby The Bowl (Tongatapu)

Fishtraps
Tongatapu, Tonga
Reef break
Mon 3
Tue 4
Wed 5
Thu 6
Fri 7
Sat 8
Sun 9
Mon 10
Tue 11
Wed 12
Thu 13
Fri 14
The Bowl (Tongatapu)
Tongatapu, Tonga
Reef break
Mon 3
Tue 4
Wed 5
Thu 6
Fri 7
Sat 8
Sun 9
Mon 10
Tue 11
Wed 12
Thu 13
Fri 14
Lighthouse (Tongatapu)
Tongatapu, Tonga
Reef break
Mon 3
Tue 4
Wed 5
Thu 6
Fri 7
Sat 8
Sun 9
Mon 10
Tue 11
Wed 12
Thu 13
Fri 14
Corners
Tongatapu, Tonga
Reef break
Mon 3
Tue 4
Wed 5
Thu 6
Fri 7
Sat 8
Sun 9
Mon 10
Tue 11
Wed 12
Thu 13
Fri 14
Kamikazes
Tongatapu, Tonga
Reef break
Mon 3
Tue 4
Wed 5
Thu 6
Fri 7
Sat 8
Sun 9
Mon 10
Tue 11
Wed 12
Thu 13
Fri 14

Readme

Welcome! If you’re new to surf forecasting, check out this quick guide.

Forecast Table

The forecast table (the section on the page with all the numbers) is designed to pack as much information in the screen as possible. Although intimidating at first, it will help you make informed decisions about the waves faster, trust me :D. The table consists of roughly four sections, time and predictions, wind, waves, and tides:

🔮 Time and predictions section

Here we show the forecast thour and the overall surf quality prediction. This is determined based on the wave, wind and tide quality prediction. These individual predictions can be found on the forecast map.

💨 Wind section

The first row on the table (with the 💨 icon) shows wind speed, direction and gust. The more the wind speed the more aggressive the color (from blue, green, orange to red).

🌊 Wave section

The waves section consists of three rows, one for wave height and direction, one for period and one for wave energy. Our algorithm choices the "dominant wave". This is normally the first swell partition, but with heavy local storms it displays the wind waves. If that's the case, we display the numbers in italic and in gray.

🌒 Tide section

The tide section consists of a row with the actual heights per hour (measured at the half hour) and a table that displays the flow of the tide and the extremes (lows and highs).

Forecast map

The forecast map consists of arrows. These arrows represent all wave partitions (swell partitions and wind wave partition) and the wind. This allows you to see things like: a secondary swell or wind waves messes up the surf, or the wind is just a tick offshore so very surfable. Click a metric label in the bottom left to bring that arrow to the front — handy when arrows overlap.

Forecast Cheat Sheet

Short on time? Focus on wave energy. It’s the best single metric to gauge how big and powerful the waves will be.

Click any table cell to jump to that forecast hour. The map will update with forecast arrows, so you can see if wind and swell direction are lining up.

Use the table sidebar to switch units for height and speed.

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Models and Updates

Surfnerd blends multiple global and local wind and swell models using advanced interpolation and spatial techniques to create an "ensemble" forecast. Forecasts are refreshed hourly.

Surf Predictions

Our AI-driven algorithm scores surf quality, shown by green, orange, and gray dots. Each forecast hour is rated for wind, swell, and tide quality, then combined into an overall score. Here’s the scale:

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Session logs also feed the algorithm — the more you log, the smarter your forecasts get.

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Confidence

Confidence tells you how much the weather models agree on the forecast.

  • High confidence: Models agree closely; forecast is reliable.
  • Medium confidence: Some disagreement; conditions may shift slightly.
  • Low confidence: Models diverge; treat forecast with caution.

We calculate the wind confidence by comparing wind speed, gust and direction from multiple models (like GFS, ECMWF, Arome, and Harmonie) and seeing how closely they match. For wave certainty we compare height, period and direction, also on multiple models. They are weighted, meaning that some models count more than others, depending on how good they are for a certain spot.

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