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Surf forecast for The Box (Northland)

Tide
โฑ๏ธs.
โšก๏ธkJ
Timezone:
Pacific/Auckland
Forecast updated:
25/06, 00:00
Wind: SN UNITY Atmos
(20260623 12z)
Waves: SN UNITY WAVE
(20260623 12z)
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The Box (Northland) Surf Forecast Guide

Overview

The Box (Northland) is a right-breaking reef over uneven reef, known for short, fairly hollow tubes when it has enough energy. Itโ€™s a decent, moderately consistent expert spot that faces into the southwest swell train and can make the most of smaller swells.

When It Works

The best swell direction is southwest, with a broader workable swell window from southwest to north. It is usable from 0.6 m / 2 ft to 3 m / 10 ft.

Wind and Tide

Offshore wind is east. The wave needs clean, windless water to make the steep drops doable. Mid and high tide are the listed tides, and a rising tide is better.

Local Tips

This is an expert-only wave. Crowds are moderate, with bodyboarders and experienced tube-riders part of the usual mix.

Access

Head to Wreck Bay Road and drive to the end, then find a park. From there it is either a long walk west around the point past Shipwreck Bay, Supertubes, and Pines until you find a blue house on the hill, or a beach drive if you have a 4WD. The beach drive can be dangerous and is tide-dependent.

Surf spots near The Box (Northland)

Mukies 2
Northland Region, New Zealand
Point break
Wed 24
Thu 25
Fri 26
Sat 27
Sun 28
Supertubes (Northland)
Northland Region, New Zealand
Point break
Wed 24
Thu 25
Fri 26
Sat 27
Sun 28
Pines
Northland Region, New Zealand
Point break
Wed 24
Thu 25
Fri 26
Sat 27
Sun 28
Blue House
Northland Region, New Zealand
Point break
Wed 24
Thu 25
Fri 26
Sat 27
Sun 28
The Box (Northland)
Northland Region, New Zealand
Reef break
Wed 24
Thu 25
Fri 26
Sat 27
Sun 28

Frequently asked questions

What are good surfing conditions for The Box (Northland)?

The Box (Northland) is usually best with swell from southwest to north (SW-N), ideally southwest (SW) around 0.6 m / 2 ft to 3 m / 10 ft, east (E) offshore wind, and mid to high tide.

Where is the surf spot The Box (Northland)?

The Box (Northland) is a surf spot in Ahipara, Northland Region, New Zealand.

What is the surf break like at The Box (Northland)?

The Box (Northland) is a right reef break over uneven reef. Expect a moderate crowd.

What surfing skill level is The Box (Northland) suitable for?

The Box (Northland) can suit expert surfers.

Is The Box (Northland) beginner friendly for surfing?

The Box (Northland) is better suited to expert surfers.

How consistent is the surf at The Box (Northland)?

The Box (Northland) has moderate surf consistency for Northland Region, New Zealand.

What surf spots are near The Box (Northland)?

Other nearby surf spots are Blue House, Pines, Supertubes (Northland), and Mukies 2.

What swell direction works for surfing at The Box (Northland)?

The Box (Northland) can work with swell from southwest to north (SW-N); southwest (SW) is usually best.

What swell size works for surfing at The Box (Northland)?

The Box (Northland) usually works with swell around 0.6 m / 2 ft to 3 m / 10 ft.

What wind direction is best for surfing at The Box (Northland)?

East (E) offshore wind is usually best at The Box (Northland).

What wind direction is offshore for surfing at The Box (Northland)?

East (E) is offshore at The Box (Northland).

What tide works best for surfing at The Box (Northland)?

The Box (Northland) works best around mid to high tide. A rising tide is usually better here.

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Readme

Welcome! If youโ€™re new to surf forecasting, check out this quick guide.

Forecast Table

The forecast table (the section on the page with all the numbers) is designed to pack as much information in the screen as possible. Although intimidating at first, it will help you make informed decisions about the waves faster, trust me :D. The table consists of roughly four sections, time and predictions, wind, waves, and tides:

๐Ÿ”ฎ Time and predictions section

Here we show the forecast thour and the overall surf quality prediction. This is determined based on the wave, wind and tide quality prediction. These individual predictions can be found on the forecast map.

๐Ÿ’จ Wind section

The first row on the table (with the ๐Ÿ’จ icon) shows wind speed, direction and gust. The more the wind speed the more aggressive the color (from blue, green, orange to red).

๐ŸŒŠ Wave section

The waves section consists of three rows, one for wave height and direction, one for period and one for wave energy. Our algorithm chooses the "dominant wave" using spot-adjusted surf energy (depth + directional fit). This is usually the first swell partition, but during local storms it can switch to wind waves. If that happens, values are shown in gray and italic.

๐ŸŒ’ Tide section

The tide section consists of a row with the actual heights per hour (measured at the half hour) and a table that displays the flow of the tide and the extremes (lows and highs).

Forecast map

The forecast map consists of arrows. These arrows represent all wave partitions (swell partitions and wind wave partition) and the wind. This allows you to see things like: a secondary swell or wind waves messes up the surf, or the wind is just a tick offshore so very surfable. Click a metric label in the bottom left to bring that arrow to the front โ€” handy when arrows overlap.

Forecast Cheat Sheet

Short on time? Focus on wave energy. Itโ€™s the best single metric to gauge how big and powerful the waves will be.

Click any table cell to jump to that forecast hour. The map will update with forecast arrows, so you can see if wind and swell direction are lining up.

Use the table sidebar to switch units for height and speed.

Log your surf sessions to compare forecasts with real sessions and sharpen future predictions.

Models and Updates

Surfnerd blends multiple global and local wind and swell models using advanced interpolation and spatial techniques to create an "ensemble" forecast. Forecasts are refreshed hourly.

Surf Predictions

Our AI-driven algorithm scores surf quality, shown by green, orange, and gray dots. Each forecast hour is rated for wind, swell, and tide quality, then combined into an overall score. Hereโ€™s the scale:

Perfect
Good
Average
Bad or No Data

Session logs also feed the algorithm โ€” the more you log, the smarter your forecasts get.

With Surfnerd, no more "you should have been here yesterday"

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Confidence

Confidence tells you how much the weather models agree on the forecast.

  • High confidence: Models agree closely; forecast is reliable.
  • Medium confidence: Some disagreement; conditions may shift slightly.
  • Low confidence: Models diverge; treat forecast with caution.

We calculate the wind confidence by comparing wind speed, gust and direction from multiple models (like GFS, ECMWF, Arome, and Harmonie) and seeing how closely they match. For wave certainty we compare height, period and direction, also on multiple models. They are weighted, meaning that some models count more than others, depending on how good they are for a certain spot.