The Cove - Nayarit
Hourly
Confidence
Compare
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Wednesday 29
Thursday 30
Friday 31
Saturday 01
Sunday 02
Monday 03
Tap a forecast cell to explore conditions on the map.
Timezone: America/Bahia_Banderas

The Cove - Nayarit surf guide

The Cove in Nayarit is a well-known surf spot that offers a unique experience for surfers. It's accessed mainly by panga, making it a bit remote and reserved mostly for those in the know. If you're staying at a more upscale resort, you might have easier access. The surrounding environment offers a bit of a challenge as it's a 40-minute rock hop from El Anclote, so be prepared for the trek. Expect bigger waves here compared to the breaks inside the Bay, which makes it more suitable for experienced surfers.

This spot is well-exposed to swells from different directions, particularly thriving on Northwest swells. The waves tend to break right over an uneven reef, so keeping your wits about you is important. You'll find that it can handle swell sizes of around 3 to 6 feet (1 to 2 meters). When tide levels are low, mid, or even high, you'll find waves that have a fast, sectiony nature, providing a challenge for intermediate surfers. The preferred wind direction is Northeast, but be mindfulโ€”this spot can be a bit sensitive to wind conditions, and it really shines when the wind cooperates.

While The Cove is not the easiest spot to reach, it rewards those who do with some nice waves. Just keep in mind that the surf can get sucky at lower tides, so timing your sessions is crucial. With a solid understanding of the swell and wind, you can maximize your experience here, but it's best suited for those with an intermediate skill level looking to take on a bit of a challenge.

Surf reports and surf forecasts nearby The Cove - Nayarit

San Pancho
Nayarit, Mexico
Point break
Wed 29
Thu 30
Fri 31
Sat 1
Sun 2
Mon 3
Tue 4
Wed 5
Thu 6
Fri 7
Sat 8
Sun 9
Ostiones
Nayarit, Mexico
Reef break
Wed 29
Thu 30
Fri 31
Sat 1
Sun 2
Mon 3
Tue 4
Wed 5
Thu 6
Fri 7
Sat 8
Sun 9
Punta Sayulita
Nayarit, Mexico
Reef break
Wed 29
Thu 30
Fri 31
Sat 1
Sun 2
Mon 3
Tue 4
Wed 5
Thu 6
Fri 7
Sat 8
Sun 9
Costa Banderas
Nayarit, Mexico
Point break
Wed 29
Thu 30
Fri 31
Sat 1
Sun 2
Mon 3
Tue 4
Wed 5
Thu 6
Fri 7
Sat 8
Sun 9
Punta Burros
Nayarit, Mexico
Reef break
Wed 29
Thu 30
Fri 31
Sat 1
Sun 2
Mon 3
Tue 4
Wed 5
Thu 6
Fri 7
Sat 8
Sun 9
La Lancha
Nayarit, Mexico
Reef break, Point break
Wed 29
Thu 30
Fri 31
Sat 1
Sun 2
Mon 3
Tue 4
Wed 5
Thu 6
Fri 7
Sat 8
Sun 9
Punta Mita
Nayarit, Mexico
Reef break
Wed 29
Thu 30
Fri 31
Sat 1
Sun 2
Mon 3
Tue 4
Wed 5
Thu 6
Fri 7
Sat 8
Sun 9
The Cove - Nayarit
Nayarit, Mexico
Reef break
Wed 29
Thu 30
Fri 31
Sat 1
Sun 2
Mon 3
Tue 4
Wed 5
Thu 6
Fri 7
Sat 8
Sun 9
El Faro
Nayarit, Mexico
Point break
Wed 29
Thu 30
Fri 31
Sat 1
Sun 2
Mon 3
Tue 4
Wed 5
Thu 6
Fri 7
Sat 8
Sun 9
Islas Marietas
Nayarit, Mexico
Reef break
Wed 29
Thu 30
Fri 31
Sat 1
Sun 2
Mon 3
Tue 4
Wed 5
Thu 6
Fri 7
Sat 8
Sun 9
Confidence

Confidence tells you how much the weather models agree on the forecast.

  • High confidence: Models agree closely; forecast is reliable.
  • Medium confidence: Some disagreement; conditions may shift slightly.
  • Low confidence: Models diverge; treat forecast with caution.

We calculate the wind confidence by comparing wind speed, gust and direction from multiple models (like GFS, ECMWF, Arome, and Harmonie) and seeing how closely they match. For wave certainty we compare height, period and direction, also on multiple models. They are weighted, meaning that some models count more than others, depending on how good they are for a certain spot.

Readme

Welcome! If youโ€™re new to surf forecasting, check out this quick guide.

Forecast Table

The forecast table (the section on the page with all the numbers) is designed to pack as much information in the screen as possible. Although intimidating at first, it will help you make informed decisions about the waves faster, trust me :D. The table consists of roughly four sections, time and predictions, wind, waves, and tides:

๐Ÿ”ฎ Time and predictions section

Here we show the forecast thour and the overall surf quality prediction. This is determined based on the wave, wind and tide quality prediction. These individual predictions can be found on the forecast map.

๐Ÿ’จ Wind section

The first row on the table (with the ๐Ÿ’จ icon) shows wind speed, direction and gust. The more the wind speed the more aggressive the color (from blue, green, orange to red).

๐ŸŒŠ Wave section

The waves section consists of three rows, one for wave height and direction, one for period and one for wave energy. Our algorithm choices the "dominant wave". This is normally the first swell partition, but with heavy local storms it displays the wind waves. If that's the case, we display the numbers in italic and in gray.

๐ŸŒ’ Tide section

The tide section consists of a row with the actual heights per hour (measured at the half hour) and a table that displays the flow of the tide and the extremes (lows and highs).

Forecast map

The forecast map consists of arrows. These arrows represent all wave partitions (swell partitions and wind wave partition) and the wind. This allows you to see things like: a secondary swell or wind waves messes up the surf, or the wind is just a tick offshore so very surfable. Click a metric label in the bottom left to bring that arrow to the front โ€” handy when arrows overlap.

Forecast Cheat Sheet

Short on time? Focus on wave energy. Itโ€™s the best single metric to gauge how big and powerful the waves will be.

Click any table cell to jump to that forecast hour. The map will update with forecast arrows, so you can see if wind and swell direction are lining up.

Use the table sidebar to switch units for height and speed.

Log your surf sessions to compare forecasts with real sessions and sharpen future predictions.

Models and Updates

Surfnerd blends multiple global and local wind and swell models using advanced interpolation and spatial techniques to create an "ensemble" forecast. Forecasts are refreshed hourly.

Surf Predictions

Our AI-driven algorithm scores surf quality, shown by green, orange, and gray dots. Each forecast hour is rated for wind, swell, and tide quality, then combined into an overall score. Hereโ€™s the scale:

Perfect
Good
Average
Bad or No Data

Session logs also feed the algorithm โ€” the more you log, the smarter your forecasts get.

With Surfnerd, no more "you should have been here yesterday"

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