Tolaga Bay
Pull to refresh
Hourly Forecast
Timezone: Pacific/Auckland
⏱️s.
⚡️kJ
🔮
🌒
Saturday 6
Sunday 7
Monday 1
Tuesday 2
Wednesday 3
Thursday 4
Tap a forecast cell to explore conditions on the map.
This forecast is 3 hrs behind.
to get real-time data.
Surfnerd Logo
Join Surfnerd for free to check this forecast
Join Surfnerd to check forecasts, set your homespot, save and create spots and log your surf sessions.
Sign up with AppleSign up with Google

Tolaga Bay surf guide

Tolaga Bay is a small, scenic surf spot located on the east coast of New Zealand's North Island. It's known for its beachbreak, which can be a fun place to catch some waves. The highlight here is often the rivermouth bar, a spot that can produce decent waves when conditions are right. It’s a chill location, perfect for those looking to enjoy a day out in the water.

The surf at Tolaga Bay works best with an easterly swell direction, but it can also handle swells coming from the northeast and southeast. The beachbreak is suitable for swells around 0.6 meters (2 ft) and breaks over sand. You can catch both left and right waves here, with the rivermouth bar often delivering some solid rides. For the best experience, aim for low to mid to high tide, and you'll also want a westerly wind for optimal conditions. It’s generally a spot suited for intermediate surfers, so keep that in mind when you paddle out.

When the swells are larger, you can use the 600-meter wharf to get out back, which can be a handy way to access better waves. Overall, Tolaga Bay has its moments and can be worth a visit if you're in the area looking for a surf session.

Surf reports and surf forecasts nearby Tolaga Bay

Waipiro Bay
Gisborne, New Zealand
Point break
Sat 16
Sun 17
Mon 18
Tue 19
Wed 20
Thu 21
Fri 22
Sat 23
Sun 24
Mon 25
Tue 26
Wed 27
Tokomaru Bay
Gisborne, New Zealand
Point break
Sat 16
Sun 17
Mon 18
Tue 19
Wed 20
Thu 21
Fri 22
Sat 23
Sun 24
Mon 25
Tue 26
Wed 27
Three Points/Marau Point
Gisborne, New Zealand
Point break
Sat 16
Sun 17
Mon 18
Tue 19
Wed 20
Thu 21
Fri 22
Sat 23
Sun 24
Mon 25
Tue 26
Wed 27
Cook's Point
Gisborne, New Zealand
Point break
Sat 16
Sun 17
Mon 18
Tue 19
Wed 20
Thu 21
Fri 22
Sat 23
Sun 24
Mon 25
Tue 26
Wed 27
Tolaga Bay
Gisborne, New Zealand
Rivermouth break
Sat 16
Sun 17
Mon 18
Tue 19
Wed 20
Thu 21
Fri 22
Sat 23
Sun 24
Mon 25
Tue 26
Wed 27
Loisells Beach
Gisborne, New Zealand
Beach break
Sat 16
Sun 17
Mon 18
Tue 19
Wed 20
Thu 21
Fri 22
Sat 23
Sun 24
Mon 25
Tue 26
Wed 27
Whangara
Gisborne, New Zealand
Beach break
Sat 16
Sun 17
Mon 18
Tue 19
Wed 20
Thu 21
Fri 22
Sat 23
Sun 24
Mon 25
Tue 26
Wed 27
Pouawa Beach
Gisborne, New Zealand
Beach break
Sat 16
Sun 17
Mon 18
Tue 19
Wed 20
Thu 21
Fri 22
Sat 23
Sun 24
Mon 25
Tue 26
Wed 27
North Makarori Reef
Gisborne, New Zealand
Reef break
Sat 16
Sun 17
Mon 18
Tue 19
Wed 20
Thu 21
Fri 22
Sat 23
Sun 24
Mon 25
Tue 26
Wed 27
Makarori Point
Gisborne, New Zealand
Reef break
Sat 16
Sun 17
Mon 18
Tue 19
Wed 20
Thu 21
Fri 22
Sat 23
Sun 24
Mon 25
Tue 26
Wed 27

Readme

Welcome! If you’re new to surf forecasting, check out this quick guide.

Forecast Cheat Sheet

Short on time? Focus on wave energy. It’s the best single metric to gauge how big and powerful the waves will be.

Click any table cell to jump to that forecast hour. The map will update with forecast arrows, so you can see if wind and swell direction are lining up.

Use the table sidebar to switch units for height and speed.

Log your surf sessions to compare forecasts with real sessions and sharpen future predictions.

On the map, click a metric label to bring that arrow to the front — handy when arrows overlap.

Models and Updates

Surfnerd blends multiple global and local wind and swell models using advanced interpolation and spatial techniques to create an "ensemble" forecast. Forecasts are refreshed hourly.

Surf Predictions

Our AI-driven algorithm scores surf quality, shown by green, orange, and gray dots. Each forecast hour is rated for wind, swell, and tide quality, then combined into an overall score. Here’s the scale:

Perfect
Good
Average
Bad or No Data

Session logs also feed the algorithm — the more you log, the smarter your forecasts get.

With Surfnerd, no more "you should have been here yesterday"

Login to do spot actions
Surfnerd Logo
Join Surfnerd+ and get:
  • Always fresh
    forecasts
    (vs 3-hour delay)
  • 12-day
    forecast range
    (vs 6-day)
  • 1-hour
    forecast steps
    (vs 3-hour)
  • Unlimited
    spot checks
    (vs 3/day)
"Great Forecasts. Nothing more, nothing less."
Wind certainty

Wind certainty tells you how much the weather models agree on the forecast.

  • High certainty: Models agree closely; forecast is reliable.
  • Medium certainty: Some disagreement; conditions may shift slightly.
  • Low certainty: Models diverge; treat forecast with caution.

We calculate this by comparing wind speed, gust and direction from multiple models (like GFS, ECMWF, Arome, and Harmonie) and seeing how closely they match. They are weighted, meaning that some models count more than others, depending on how good they are for a certain spot.