Waimea Bay
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Hourly Forecast
Timezone: Pacific/Honolulu
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Wednesday 03
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Saturday 06
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Monday 08
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Waimea Bay surf guide

Waimea Bay is a well-known surf spot on Hawaii's North Shore. It's famous for big waves that attract experienced surfers from all over. The bay can handle swells ranging from 15ft (4.5m) to 40ft (12m), making it a prime location for big wave riding during the winter months. While it might not always have the biggest waves compared to other spots, it remains a proving ground for surfers looking to challenge themselves. On busy days, parking can be a struggle, as many people flock to see the action.

The surf at Waimea is intense, especially when the waves start to rise. Expect powerful waves breaking consistently over an uneven reef. The optimal swell direction is Northwest, but it can also handle swells from the West and Northeast. You'll find right-breaking waves that can lead to some incredible rides, but only for those with expert abilities. The conditions are best on a light East wind with a tide that's anywhere from low to high. As the swell builds, the situation can turn chaotic with huge drops and heavy shoulder action, particularly at the take-off zone. When the waves reach around 3-4 times overhead, you'll see some of the most sought-after rides starting to form.

Getting into the water is manageable through a keyhole in the rocky northeast corner of the bay, but timing is essential as the swell picks up. On days when the surf is smaller, around 15ft (4.5m), you might find fun conditions at a section known as Pinballs along the lava rock point. Keep in mind that the currents can be strong, especially during bigger swells, so itโ€™s crucial to stay alert. Waimea Bay continues to challenge even the best surfers, maintaining its reputation as a top spot for those ready to tackle the big waves.

Surf reports and surf forecasts nearby Waimea Bay

Ehukai
Hawaii, United States
Reef break
Wed 3
Thu 4
Fri 5
Sat 6
Sun 7
Mon 8
Tue 9
Wed 10
Thu 11
Fri 12
Sat 13
Sun 14
Pipeline & Backdoor
Hawaii, United States
Reef break
Wed 3
Thu 4
Fri 5
Sat 6
Sun 7
Mon 8
Tue 9
Wed 10
Thu 11
Fri 12
Sat 13
Sun 14
Off-The-Wall
Hawaii, United States
Reef break
Wed 3
Thu 4
Fri 5
Sat 6
Sun 7
Mon 8
Tue 9
Wed 10
Thu 11
Fri 12
Sat 13
Sun 14
Rockpile
Hawaii, United States
Reef break
Wed 3
Thu 4
Fri 5
Sat 6
Sun 7
Mon 8
Tue 9
Wed 10
Thu 11
Fri 12
Sat 13
Sun 14
Log Cabins
Hawaii, United States
Reef break
Wed 3
Thu 4
Fri 5
Sat 6
Sun 7
Mon 8
Tue 9
Wed 10
Thu 11
Fri 12
Sat 13
Sun 14
Waimea Bay
Hawaii, United States
Reef break
Wed 3
Thu 4
Fri 5
Sat 6
Sun 7
Mon 8
Tue 9
Wed 10
Thu 11
Fri 12
Sat 13
Sun 14
Marijuana's
Hawaii, United States
Reef break
Wed 3
Thu 4
Fri 5
Sat 6
Sun 7
Mon 8
Tue 9
Wed 10
Thu 11
Fri 12
Sat 13
Sun 14
Chun's
Hawaii, United States
Reef break
Wed 3
Thu 4
Fri 5
Sat 6
Sun 7
Mon 8
Tue 9
Wed 10
Thu 11
Fri 12
Sat 13
Sun 14
Jocko's
Hawaii, United States
Reef break
Wed 3
Thu 4
Fri 5
Sat 6
Sun 7
Mon 8
Tue 9
Wed 10
Thu 11
Fri 12
Sat 13
Sun 14
Hultin's
Hawaii, United States
Reef break, Point break
Wed 3
Thu 4
Fri 5
Sat 6
Sun 7
Mon 8
Tue 9
Wed 10
Thu 11
Fri 12
Sat 13
Sun 14
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Wind certainty

Wind certainty tells you how much the weather models agree on the forecast.

  • High certainty: Models agree closely; forecast is reliable.
  • Medium certainty: Some disagreement; conditions may shift slightly.
  • Low certainty: Models diverge; treat forecast with caution.

We calculate this by comparing wind speed, gust and direction from multiple models (like GFS, ECMWF, Arome, and Harmonie) and seeing how closely they match. They are weighted, meaning that some models count more than others, depending on how good they are for a certain spot.

Readme

Welcome! If youโ€™re new to surf forecasting, check out this quick guide.

Forecast Table

The forecast table (the section on the page with all the numbers) is designed to pack as much information in the screen as possible. Although intimidating at first, it will help you make informed decisions about the waves faster, trust me :D. The table consists of roughly four sections, time and predictions, wind, waves, and tides:

๐Ÿ”ฎ Time and predictions section

Here we show the forecast thour and the overall surf quality prediction. This is determined based on the wave, wind and tide quality prediction. These individual predictions can be found on the forecast map.

๐Ÿ’จ Wind section

The first row on the table (with the ๐Ÿ’จ icon) shows wind speed, direction and gust. The more the wind speed the more aggressive the color (from blue, green, orange to red).

๐ŸŒŠ Wave section

The waves section consists of three rows, one for wave height and direction, one for period and one for wave energy. Our algorithm choices the "dominant wave". This is normally the first swell partition, but with heavy local storms it displays the wind waves. If that's the case, we display the numbers in italic and in gray.

๐ŸŒ’ Tide section

The tide section consists of a row with the actual heights per hour (measured at the half hour) and a table that displays the flow of the tide and the extremes (lows and highs).

Forecast map

The forecast map consists of arrows. These arrows represent all wave partitions (swell partitions and wind wave partition) and the wind. This allows you to see things like: a secondary swell or wind waves messes up the surf, or the wind is just a tick offshore so very surfable. Click a metric label in the bottom left to bring that arrow to the front โ€” handy when arrows overlap.

Forecast Cheat Sheet

Short on time? Focus on wave energy. Itโ€™s the best single metric to gauge how big and powerful the waves will be.

Click any table cell to jump to that forecast hour. The map will update with forecast arrows, so you can see if wind and swell direction are lining up.

Use the table sidebar to switch units for height and speed.

Log your surf sessions to compare forecasts with real sessions and sharpen future predictions.

Models and Updates

Surfnerd blends multiple global and local wind and swell models using advanced interpolation and spatial techniques to create an "ensemble" forecast. Forecasts are refreshed hourly.

Surf Predictions

Our AI-driven algorithm scores surf quality, shown by green, orange, and gray dots. Each forecast hour is rated for wind, swell, and tide quality, then combined into an overall score. Hereโ€™s the scale:

Perfect
Good
Average
Bad or No Data

Session logs also feed the algorithm โ€” the more you log, the smarter your forecasts get.

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