Arpoador
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Hourly Forecast
Timezone: America/Sao_Paulo
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Arpoador surf guide

Arpoador is a popular surf spot located on the headland that separates Copacabana Beach and Ipanema Beach. Known as Brazil’s surfing birthplace, it features stunning views and a lively atmosphere. The point is easily recognized by its massive granite rock lookout and is often crowded due to its central location in Rio. The city's lighting allows for surfing at night, offering a unique experience for those looking to catch waves after dark.

The wave at Arpoador mainly breaks to the left but can also offer some rights. It can handle swell sizes from about 4ft (1.2m) up to 10ft (3m) and can even hold more on the best days, especially with clean Southeast swells. When conditions align, like lower tides and a Northeast wind, you can expect long, hollow waves with good barrels. Paddling out is usually easy, especially close to the rocks on the left side. However, the spot can also be inconsistent and crowded, making it a gamble at times, especially outside the ideal autumn and winter months from late May to early September.

Locals often crowd the waters, particularly when the waves are firing, so showing respect goes a long way. If the conditions aren’t right, you might want to check out neighboring Diablo Beach, which can handle Southwest winds. The spot is suitable for various skill levels, making it great for both beginners and more experienced surfers, although its inconsistency means you may not always find the best waves.

Surf reports and surf forecasts nearby Arpoador

Praia da Macumba
Unknown Region, Unknown Country
Beach break
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Barra da Tijuca
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Beach break
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São Conrado
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Pepino
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Beach break
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Leblon
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Beach break
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Copacabana - Posto 5
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Beach break
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Praia de Ipanema
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Beach break
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Arpoador
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Beach break
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Diabo
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Beach break
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Itacoatiara
Unknown Region, Unknown Country
Beach break
Sat 13
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Wind certainty

Wind certainty tells you how much the weather models agree on the forecast.

  • High certainty: Models agree closely; forecast is reliable.
  • Medium certainty: Some disagreement; conditions may shift slightly.
  • Low certainty: Models diverge; treat forecast with caution.

We calculate this by comparing wind speed, gust and direction from multiple models (like GFS, ECMWF, Arome, and Harmonie) and seeing how closely they match. They are weighted, meaning that some models count more than others, depending on how good they are for a certain spot.

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Readme

Welcome! If you’re new to surf forecasting, check out this quick guide.

Forecast Table

The forecast table (the section on the page with all the numbers) is designed to pack as much information in the screen as possible. Although intimidating at first, it will help you make informed decisions about the waves faster, trust me :D. The table consists of roughly four sections, time and predictions, wind, waves, and tides:

🔮 Time and predictions section

Here we show the forecast thour and the overall surf quality prediction. This is determined based on the wave, wind and tide quality prediction. These individual predictions can be found on the forecast map.

💨 Wind section

The first row on the table (with the 💨 icon) shows wind speed, direction and gust. The more the wind speed the more aggressive the color (from blue, green, orange to red).

🌊 Wave section

The waves section consists of three rows, one for wave height and direction, one for period and one for wave energy. Our algorithm choices the "dominant wave". This is normally the first swell partition, but with heavy local storms it displays the wind waves. If that's the case, we display the numbers in italic and in gray.

🌒 Tide section

The tide section consists of a row with the actual heights per hour (measured at the half hour) and a table that displays the flow of the tide and the extremes (lows and highs).

Forecast map

The forecast map consists of arrows. These arrows represent all wave partitions (swell partitions and wind wave partition) and the wind. This allows you to see things like: a secondary swell or wind waves messes up the surf, or the wind is just a tick offshore so very surfable. Click a metric label in the bottom left to bring that arrow to the front — handy when arrows overlap.

Forecast Cheat Sheet

Short on time? Focus on wave energy. It’s the best single metric to gauge how big and powerful the waves will be.

Click any table cell to jump to that forecast hour. The map will update with forecast arrows, so you can see if wind and swell direction are lining up.

Use the table sidebar to switch units for height and speed.

Log your surf sessions to compare forecasts with real sessions and sharpen future predictions.

Models and Updates

Surfnerd blends multiple global and local wind and swell models using advanced interpolation and spatial techniques to create an "ensemble" forecast. Forecasts are refreshed hourly.

Surf Predictions

Our AI-driven algorithm scores surf quality, shown by green, orange, and gray dots. Each forecast hour is rated for wind, swell, and tide quality, then combined into an overall score. Here’s the scale:

Perfect
Good
Average
Bad or No Data

Session logs also feed the algorithm — the more you log, the smarter your forecasts get.

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