Bay Head
Hourly
Confidence
Compare
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โšก๏ธkJ
Thursday 30
Friday 31
Saturday 01
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Tuesday 04
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Timezone: America/New_York

Bay Head surf guide

Bay Head is a surf spot located along the New Jersey coast that offers some decent waves, especially during the right conditions. This area can get pretty packed, particularly when the swell is up. It has a mile-long stretch of beach, so even with the crowds, thereโ€™s usually enough space for everyone to find their spot. Keep in mind that parking can be tricky during the summer months, and you might run into some strict locals who arenโ€™t always welcoming.

The surf here really shines with a good southerly swell, especially from September through March. When everything lines up, you can expect fast, hollow rights breaking over sand. Bay Head can handle swell sizes from 3 feet (about 1 meter) to 12 feet (around 3.6 meters), with waist-high to 2x overhead waves being pretty common. Low to mid tide tends to work best, but you can also catch some fun waves at high tide. The best wind direction is west, making for smooth conditions. Just be aware of the rips that can form around the groins on bigger days. This spot is generally best suited for intermediate surfers, and you can ride shortboards or fishes here depending on the conditions.

While the waves can be quite good, the local vibe has been known to get a bit heavy, especially with the increase in surfers visiting the area. The jetties are a bit longer in the Bridge Ave area, and when the sand is right, it can lead to excellent tube riding opportunities. Just keep in mind that this can often become a bit crowded, particularly on south swells. So, if you're looking for a more mellow session, try to hit it early or on off days!

Surf reports and surf forecasts nearby Bay Head

Lavallette
New Jersey, United States
Beach break, Jetty break
Thu 30
Fri 31
Sat 1
Sun 2
Mon 3
Tue 4
Wed 5
Thu 6
Fri 7
Sat 8
Sun 9
Mon 10
Mantoloking
New Jersey, United States
Beach break
Thu 30
Fri 31
Sat 1
Sun 2
Mon 3
Tue 4
Wed 5
Thu 6
Fri 7
Sat 8
Sun 9
Mon 10
Bay Head
New Jersey, United States
Unknown break
Thu 30
Fri 31
Sat 1
Sun 2
Mon 3
Tue 4
Wed 5
Thu 6
Fri 7
Sat 8
Sun 9
Mon 10
Jenkinson's
New Jersey, United States
Beach break
Thu 30
Fri 31
Sat 1
Sun 2
Mon 3
Tue 4
Wed 5
Thu 6
Fri 7
Sat 8
Sun 9
Mon 10
Jenkinsons (Point Pleasant)
New Jersey, United States
Unknown break
Thu 30
Fri 31
Sat 1
Sun 2
Mon 3
Tue 4
Wed 5
Thu 6
Fri 7
Sat 8
Sun 9
Mon 10
Manasquan
New Jersey, United States
Unknown break
Thu 30
Fri 31
Sat 1
Sun 2
Mon 3
Tue 4
Wed 5
Thu 6
Fri 7
Sat 8
Sun 9
Mon 10
Sea Girt
New Jersey, United States
Beach break, Jetty break
Thu 30
Fri 31
Sat 1
Sun 2
Mon 3
Tue 4
Wed 5
Thu 6
Fri 7
Sat 8
Sun 9
Mon 10
Manasquan Inlet
New Jersey, United States
Beach break, Jetty break
Thu 30
Fri 31
Sat 1
Sun 2
Mon 3
Tue 4
Wed 5
Thu 6
Fri 7
Sat 8
Sun 9
Mon 10
Spring Lake
New Jersey, United States
Beach break, Jetty break
Thu 30
Fri 31
Sat 1
Sun 2
Mon 3
Tue 4
Wed 5
Thu 6
Fri 7
Sat 8
Sun 9
Mon 10
Belmar to Sea Girt
New Jersey, United States
Unknown break
Thu 30
Fri 31
Sat 1
Sun 2
Mon 3
Tue 4
Wed 5
Thu 6
Fri 7
Sat 8
Sun 9
Mon 10
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Welcome! If youโ€™re new to surf forecasting, check out this quick guide.

Forecast Table

The forecast table (the section on the page with all the numbers) is designed to pack as much information in the screen as possible. Although intimidating at first, it will help you make informed decisions about the waves faster, trust me :D. The table consists of roughly four sections, time and predictions, wind, waves, and tides:

๐Ÿ”ฎ Time and predictions section

Here we show the forecast thour and the overall surf quality prediction. This is determined based on the wave, wind and tide quality prediction. These individual predictions can be found on the forecast map.

๐Ÿ’จ Wind section

The first row on the table (with the ๐Ÿ’จ icon) shows wind speed, direction and gust. The more the wind speed the more aggressive the color (from blue, green, orange to red).

๐ŸŒŠ Wave section

The waves section consists of three rows, one for wave height and direction, one for period and one for wave energy. Our algorithm choices the "dominant wave". This is normally the first swell partition, but with heavy local storms it displays the wind waves. If that's the case, we display the numbers in italic and in gray.

๐ŸŒ’ Tide section

The tide section consists of a row with the actual heights per hour (measured at the half hour) and a table that displays the flow of the tide and the extremes (lows and highs).

Forecast map

The forecast map consists of arrows. These arrows represent all wave partitions (swell partitions and wind wave partition) and the wind. This allows you to see things like: a secondary swell or wind waves messes up the surf, or the wind is just a tick offshore so very surfable. Click a metric label in the bottom left to bring that arrow to the front โ€” handy when arrows overlap.

Forecast Cheat Sheet

Short on time? Focus on wave energy. Itโ€™s the best single metric to gauge how big and powerful the waves will be.

Click any table cell to jump to that forecast hour. The map will update with forecast arrows, so you can see if wind and swell direction are lining up.

Use the table sidebar to switch units for height and speed.

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Models and Updates

Surfnerd blends multiple global and local wind and swell models using advanced interpolation and spatial techniques to create an "ensemble" forecast. Forecasts are refreshed hourly.

Surf Predictions

Our AI-driven algorithm scores surf quality, shown by green, orange, and gray dots. Each forecast hour is rated for wind, swell, and tide quality, then combined into an overall score. Hereโ€™s the scale:

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Confidence

Confidence tells you how much the weather models agree on the forecast.

  • High confidence: Models agree closely; forecast is reliable.
  • Medium confidence: Some disagreement; conditions may shift slightly.
  • Low confidence: Models diverge; treat forecast with caution.

We calculate the wind confidence by comparing wind speed, gust and direction from multiple models (like GFS, ECMWF, Arome, and Harmonie) and seeing how closely they match. For wave certainty we compare height, period and direction, also on multiple models. They are weighted, meaning that some models count more than others, depending on how good they are for a certain spot.

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