Boca Chica
Hourly
Confidence
Compare
⏱️s.
⚡️kJ
Friday 12
Saturday 13
Sunday 14
Monday 15
Tuesday 16
Timezone:
America/Chicago
Wind: ⭐ UNIFIED
(20251212 18z)
Waves: ⭐ UNIFIED
(20251212 18z)
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Boca Chica surf forecast characteristics

Swell window
NNE - SE
Swell size
1ft - 7ft
Swell breaks over
Sand
Wave types
Jetty
Wave directions
Left
Wind window
SSW - WNW
Works at
Low, Mid, High
Skill Level
Intermediate, Expert
Seasons
Spring, Winter, Autumn
Board types
Shortboard, Funboard, Longboard

Boca Chica surf forecast guide

Boca Chica is a surf spot located across from South Padre Island. It’s accessible by paddling across the Brazos Santiago Pass, by boat, or by driving from Brownsville to the south. The jetties at Boca Chica State Park help protect the area, making it a decent choice for surfers looking to catch some waves. The vibe here is pretty laid-back, and while it’s not always crowded, you can expect more company when the swell is good.

This spot generally works best on strong N and NE swells, while E swells can also produce some fun waves. The size typically ranges from about waist high (0.6 meters) to a couple of feet overhead (2.1 meters). Surfing conditions can get pretty exciting during hurricane swells that push through the Gulf of Mexico, turning Boca Chica into a serious zone. You can catch lefts and rights here, and it’s a good spot for intermediate to expert surfers. The bottom is mostly sand, and the waves break over it, making it a forgiving place to paddle out. The ideal wind directions are from the SSW to WNW, while low to mid and mid to high tides are best for this spot.

You might have to put in some effort to get here, whether it’s paddling across the pass or making the longer drive from South Padre. Keep in mind that the currents can be a bit tricky if you’re paddling. When the right conditions hit, Boca Chica can turn into a really fun surf experience for those who are up for it. Just be mindful of the loose sand and high tides if you’re driving on the beach.

Surf schools and rentals

Surf reports and surf forecasts nearby Boca Chica

South Padre Island
Texas, United States
Beach break
Fri 12
Sat 13
Sun 14
Mon 15
Tue 16
Pavilion
Texas, United States
Unknown break
Fri 12
Sat 13
Sun 14
Mon 15
Tue 16
Isla Blanca State Park
Texas, United States
Beach break, Jetty break
Fri 12
Sat 13
Sun 14
Mon 15
Tue 16
Boca Chica
Texas, United States
Jetty break
Fri 12
Sat 13
Sun 14
Mon 15
Tue 16
Boca Chica
Texas, United States
Unknown break
Fri 12
Sat 13
Sun 14
Mon 15
Tue 16
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Readme

Welcome! If you’re new to surf forecasting, check out this quick guide.

Forecast Table

The forecast table (the section on the page with all the numbers) is designed to pack as much information in the screen as possible. Although intimidating at first, it will help you make informed decisions about the waves faster, trust me :D. The table consists of roughly four sections, time and predictions, wind, waves, and tides:

🔮 Time and predictions section

Here we show the forecast thour and the overall surf quality prediction. This is determined based on the wave, wind and tide quality prediction. These individual predictions can be found on the forecast map.

💨 Wind section

The first row on the table (with the 💨 icon) shows wind speed, direction and gust. The more the wind speed the more aggressive the color (from blue, green, orange to red).

🌊 Wave section

The waves section consists of three rows, one for wave height and direction, one for period and one for wave energy. Our algorithm choices the "dominant wave". This is normally the first swell partition, but with heavy local storms it displays the wind waves. If that's the case, we display the numbers in italic and in gray.

🌒 Tide section

The tide section consists of a row with the actual heights per hour (measured at the half hour) and a table that displays the flow of the tide and the extremes (lows and highs).

Forecast map

The forecast map consists of arrows. These arrows represent all wave partitions (swell partitions and wind wave partition) and the wind. This allows you to see things like: a secondary swell or wind waves messes up the surf, or the wind is just a tick offshore so very surfable. Click a metric label in the bottom left to bring that arrow to the front — handy when arrows overlap.

Forecast Cheat Sheet

Short on time? Focus on wave energy. It’s the best single metric to gauge how big and powerful the waves will be.

Click any table cell to jump to that forecast hour. The map will update with forecast arrows, so you can see if wind and swell direction are lining up.

Use the table sidebar to switch units for height and speed.

Log your surf sessions to compare forecasts with real sessions and sharpen future predictions.

Models and Updates

Surfnerd blends multiple global and local wind and swell models using advanced interpolation and spatial techniques to create an "ensemble" forecast. Forecasts are refreshed hourly.

Surf Predictions

Our AI-driven algorithm scores surf quality, shown by green, orange, and gray dots. Each forecast hour is rated for wind, swell, and tide quality, then combined into an overall score. Here’s the scale:

Perfect
Good
Average
Bad or No Data

Session logs also feed the algorithm — the more you log, the smarter your forecasts get.

With Surfnerd, no more "you should have been here yesterday"

Confidence

Confidence tells you how much the weather models agree on the forecast.

  • High confidence: Models agree closely; forecast is reliable.
  • Medium confidence: Some disagreement; conditions may shift slightly.
  • Low confidence: Models diverge; treat forecast with caution.

We calculate the wind confidence by comparing wind speed, gust and direction from multiple models (like GFS, ECMWF, Arome, and Harmonie) and seeing how closely they match. For wave certainty we compare height, period and direction, also on multiple models. They are weighted, meaning that some models count more than others, depending on how good they are for a certain spot.