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Surf forecast for Pavilion

Map showing Pavilion
Wwvs
2.2ft 5s.
33kJ
Swl 1
5.5ft 10s.
821kJ
Wnd
14mph
17mph
Tide
๐Ÿ’จmph
๐ŸŒŠft
โฑ๏ธs.
โšก๏ธkJ
Timezone:
America/Chicago
Forecast updated:
10/10, 07:00 am
Wind: SN UNITY Atmos
(20261010 00z)
Waves: SN UNITY WAVE
(20261010 00z)

Weather

Saturday 10/10

Water temperature
83ยฐF
Daily average
Air temperatureBeta
Over water
81โ€“83ยฐF
On shore
78โ€“86ยฐF
Moon phase
New moon
0% illuminated
Closest moon phase
New moon
Sat 10/10 10:51 am
Tide range
0.7ft - 2.0ft
Low 09:09 am ยท High 04:55 pm

Timeline

Pavilion Surf Forecast Guide

Overview

Pavilion is a punchy beachbreak that fires on the north side of the jetty, where powerful, hollow walls hold their shape over sand. When it turns on, it delivers classic, quality rights. The whole setup sits inside a massive county park, so it is an easy place to settle in for a session.

When It Works

The break draws swell from the northeast through to the southeast, with southeast (SE) swell the best match for lining up those hollow right-handers. It is a consistent option and works from 0.3 m / 1 ft to 2.4 m / 8 ft. On the very biggest swells, when the surrounding beaches close out, a few extra quality waves can show up between the two jetties.

Wind and Tide

Look for southwest (SW) offshore wind to groom it clean. The break can work through most of the tide, with a rising tide generally the better call.

Local Tips

The wave suits intermediate surfers looking for a rippable, powerful right. Expect a moderately busy lineup when it is working.

Access

Pavilion sits within a large county park stocked with restrooms, showers, camping, a lifeguard, a surf school, and a surf shop. Parking is straightforward, with a car park offering free parking alongside paid, metered, and roadside options.

Surf spots near Pavilion

Boca Chica
Texas, United States
Jetty break
Sat 10
Sun 11
Mon 12
Tue 13
Wed 14
Boca Chica
Texas, United States
Unknown break
Sat 10
Sun 11
Mon 12
Tue 13
Wed 14
Pavilion
Texas, United States
Unknown break
Sat 10
Sun 11
Mon 12
Tue 13
Wed 14
Isla Blanca State Park
Texas, United States
Beach break, Jetty break
Sat 10
Sun 11
Mon 12
Tue 13
Wed 14
South Padre Island
Texas, United States
Beach break
Sat 10
Sun 11
Mon 12
Tue 13
Wed 14

Frequently asked questions

What are good surfing conditions for Pavilion?

Pavilion is usually best with swell from northeast to southeast (NE-SE), ideally southeast (SE) around 0.3 m / 1 ft to 2.4 m / 8 ft, southwest (SW) offshore wind, and any tide.

Where is the surf spot Pavilion?

Pavilion is a surf spot in South Padre Island, Texas, United States.

What is the surf break like at Pavilion?

Waves at Pavilion break right. Pavilion breaks over sand. Expect a moderate crowd.

What surfing skill level is Pavilion suitable for?

Pavilion can suit intermediate surfers.

Is Pavilion beginner friendly for surfing?

Pavilion is better suited to intermediate surfers.

How consistent is the surf at Pavilion?

Pavilion is one of the more consistent surf spots in Texas, United States.

What facilities are available for surfers at Pavilion?

Facilities for surfers at Pavilion: restrooms, showers, camping, lifeguard, surf school, and surf shop.

Is there parking for surfing at Pavilion?

Parking around Pavilion: free parking, paid parking, metered parking, roadside parking, and car park.

What surf spots are near Pavilion?

Other nearby surf spots are Isla Blanca State Park, Boca Chica, Boca Chica, and South Padre Island.

What swell direction works for surfing at Pavilion?

Pavilion can work with swell from northeast to southeast (NE-SE); southeast (SE) is usually best.

What swell size works for surfing at Pavilion?

Pavilion usually works with swell around 0.3 m / 1 ft to 2.4 m / 8 ft.

What wind direction is best for surfing at Pavilion?

Southwest (SW) offshore wind is usually best at Pavilion.

What wind direction is offshore for surfing at Pavilion?

Southwest (SW) is offshore at Pavilion.

What tide works best for surfing at Pavilion?

Pavilion can work on all tides. A rising tide is usually better here.

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Readme

Welcome! If youโ€™re new to surf forecasting, check out this quick guide.

Forecast Table

The forecast table (the section on the page with all the numbers) is designed to pack as much information in the screen as possible. Although intimidating at first, it will help you make informed decisions about the waves faster, trust me :D. The table consists of roughly four sections, time and predictions, wind, waves, and tides:

๐Ÿ”ฎ Time and predictions section

Here we show the forecast thour and the overall surf quality prediction. This is determined based on the wave, wind and tide quality prediction. These individual predictions can be found on the forecast map.

๐Ÿ’จ Wind section

The first row on the table (with the ๐Ÿ’จ icon) shows wind speed, direction and gust. The more the wind speed the more aggressive the color (from blue, green, orange to red).

๐ŸŒŠ Wave section

The waves section consists of three rows, one for wave height and direction, one for period and one for wave energy. Our algorithm chooses the "dominant wave" using spot-adjusted surf energy (depth + directional fit). This is usually the first swell partition, but during local storms it can switch to wind waves. If that happens, values are shown in gray and italic.

๐ŸŽฏ Model agreement

The small letter in the wind and wave cells shows how closely the weather models we blend agree for that hour.

  • H, the models line up closely.
  • M, the models differ somewhat, so conditions may still shift.
  • L, the models disagree, so check again closer to your session.
  • A dash means only one model covered this hour, so there was nothing to compare.

For wind we compare each model's wind vector, plus gusts where every model reports them. For waves we compare height, period and direction of the matched swell systems.

It is a measure of model agreement, not a probability that the forecast is right.

๐ŸŒ’ Tide section

The tide section consists of a row with the actual heights per hour (measured at the half hour) and a table that displays the flow of the tide and the extremes (lows and highs).

Forecast map

The forecast map consists of arrows. These arrows represent all wave partitions (swell partitions and wind wave partition) and the wind. This allows you to see things like: a secondary swell or wind waves messes up the surf, or the wind is just a tick offshore so very surfable. Click a metric label in the bottom left to bring that arrow to the front โ€” handy when arrows overlap.

Forecast Cheat Sheet

Short on time? Focus on wave energy. Itโ€™s the best single metric to gauge how big and powerful the waves will be.

Click any table cell to jump to that forecast hour. The map will update with forecast arrows, so you can see if wind and swell direction are lining up.

Use the table sidebar to switch units for height and speed.

Log your surf sessions to compare forecasts with real sessions and sharpen future predictions.

Models and Updates

Surfnerd blends multiple global and local wind and swell models using advanced interpolation and spatial techniques to create an "ensemble" forecast. Forecasts are refreshed hourly.

Surf Predictions

Our AI-driven algorithm scores surf quality, shown by green, orange, and gray dots. Each forecast hour is rated for wind, swell, and tide quality, then combined into an overall score. Hereโ€™s the scale:

Perfect
Good
Average
Bad or No Data

Session logs also feed the algorithm โ€” the more you log, the smarter your forecasts get.

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