Pavilion
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Hourly Forecast
Timezone: America/Chicago
⏱️s.
⚡️kJ
Wednesday 03
Thursday 04
Friday 05
Saturday 06
Sunday 07
Monday 08
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Pavilion surf guide

Pavilion is a surf spot located near the Brazos Santiago Pass and is known for its beachbreak. It’s not the most famous spot, but it has its moments. The waves can offer some decent rides, especially for those willing to wait for the right conditions. The spot is relatively accessible and is located close to Port Isabel, which makes it a convenient choice for surfers in the area. Pavilion tends to attract a mix of local surfers and visitors, especially during the peak season.

The beachbreak here can deliver some powerful, hollow walls, particularly on the north side of the jetty. The best conditions usually come with southeast to east swells, while the south side at Boca Chica works better with some north swells, creating lefts running down the beach. You can find waves that handle sizes of around 1 ft (0.3 m) on good days. The wave direction here mainly offers rights, and you’ll want to catch it on low to mid or high tides for the best experience. A southwest wind works well here, so keep an eye on the forecast. This spot is better suited for intermediate surfers since the waves can get a bit tricky at times.

The surrounding area is a massive county park that provides camping and RV facilities, making it a good base for those who want to enjoy a few days of surfing. The park amenities can make your trip more comfortable, whether you're looking to spend one night or an extended stay by the beach.

Surf reports and surf forecasts nearby Pavilion

J.P. Luby Surf Park
Texas, United States
Beach break, Jetty break
Wed 3
Thu 4
Fri 5
Sat 6
Sun 7
Mon 8
Tue 9
Wed 10
Thu 11
Fri 12
Sat 13
Sun 14
Packery Channel
Texas, United States
Unknown break
Wed 3
Thu 4
Fri 5
Sat 6
Sun 7
Mon 8
Tue 9
Wed 10
Thu 11
Fri 12
Sat 13
Sun 14
North Padre Seawall
Texas, United States
Beach break
Wed 3
Thu 4
Fri 5
Sat 6
Sun 7
Mon 8
Tue 9
Wed 10
Thu 11
Fri 12
Sat 13
Sun 14
Bob Hall Pier
Texas, United States
Unknown break
Wed 3
Thu 4
Fri 5
Sat 6
Sun 7
Mon 8
Tue 9
Wed 10
Thu 11
Fri 12
Sat 13
Sun 14
Port Mansfield Jetties
Texas, United States
Unknown break
Wed 3
Thu 4
Fri 5
Sat 6
Sun 7
Mon 8
Tue 9
Wed 10
Thu 11
Fri 12
Sat 13
Sun 14
South Padre Island
Texas, United States
Beach break
Wed 3
Thu 4
Fri 5
Sat 6
Sun 7
Mon 8
Tue 9
Wed 10
Thu 11
Fri 12
Sat 13
Sun 14
Pavilion
Texas, United States
Unknown break
Wed 3
Thu 4
Fri 5
Sat 6
Sun 7
Mon 8
Tue 9
Wed 10
Thu 11
Fri 12
Sat 13
Sun 14
Isla Blanca State Park
Texas, United States
Beach break, Jetty break
Wed 3
Thu 4
Fri 5
Sat 6
Sun 7
Mon 8
Tue 9
Wed 10
Thu 11
Fri 12
Sat 13
Sun 14
Boca Chica
Texas, United States
Jetty break
Wed 3
Thu 4
Fri 5
Sat 6
Sun 7
Mon 8
Tue 9
Wed 10
Thu 11
Fri 12
Sat 13
Sun 14
Boca Chica
Texas, United States
Unknown break
Wed 3
Thu 4
Fri 5
Sat 6
Sun 7
Mon 8
Tue 9
Wed 10
Thu 11
Fri 12
Sat 13
Sun 14
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Readme

Welcome! If you’re new to surf forecasting, check out this quick guide.

Forecast Table

The forecast table (the section on the page with all the numbers) is designed to pack as much information in the screen as possible. Although intimidating at first, it will help you make informed decisions about the waves faster, trust me :D. The table consists of roughly four sections, time and predictions, wind, waves, and tides:

🔮 Time and predictions section

Here we show the forecast thour and the overall surf quality prediction. This is determined based on the wave, wind and tide quality prediction. These individual predictions can be found on the forecast map.

💨 Wind section

The first row on the table (with the 💨 icon) shows wind speed, direction and gust. The more the wind speed the more aggressive the color (from blue, green, orange to red).

🌊 Wave section

The waves section consists of three rows, one for wave height and direction, one for period and one for wave energy. Our algorithm choices the "dominant wave". This is normally the first swell partition, but with heavy local storms it displays the wind waves. If that's the case, we display the numbers in italic and in gray.

🌒 Tide section

The tide section consists of a row with the actual heights per hour (measured at the half hour) and a table that displays the flow of the tide and the extremes (lows and highs).

Forecast map

The forecast map consists of arrows. These arrows represent all wave partitions (swell partitions and wind wave partition) and the wind. This allows you to see things like: a secondary swell or wind waves messes up the surf, or the wind is just a tick offshore so very surfable. Click a metric label in the bottom left to bring that arrow to the front — handy when arrows overlap.

Forecast Cheat Sheet

Short on time? Focus on wave energy. It’s the best single metric to gauge how big and powerful the waves will be.

Click any table cell to jump to that forecast hour. The map will update with forecast arrows, so you can see if wind and swell direction are lining up.

Use the table sidebar to switch units for height and speed.

Log your surf sessions to compare forecasts with real sessions and sharpen future predictions.

Models and Updates

Surfnerd blends multiple global and local wind and swell models using advanced interpolation and spatial techniques to create an "ensemble" forecast. Forecasts are refreshed hourly.

Surf Predictions

Our AI-driven algorithm scores surf quality, shown by green, orange, and gray dots. Each forecast hour is rated for wind, swell, and tide quality, then combined into an overall score. Here’s the scale:

Perfect
Good
Average
Bad or No Data

Session logs also feed the algorithm — the more you log, the smarter your forecasts get.

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Wind certainty

Wind certainty tells you how much the weather models agree on the forecast.

  • High certainty: Models agree closely; forecast is reliable.
  • Medium certainty: Some disagreement; conditions may shift slightly.
  • Low certainty: Models diverge; treat forecast with caution.

We calculate this by comparing wind speed, gust and direction from multiple models (like GFS, ECMWF, Arome, and Harmonie) and seeing how closely they match. They are weighted, meaning that some models count more than others, depending on how good they are for a certain spot.

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