Crayfish Factory
Hourly
Confidence
Compare
⏱️s.
⚡️kJ
Saturday 22
Sunday 23
Monday 24
Tuesday 25
Wednesday 26
Thursday 27
Tap a forecast cell to explore conditions on the map.
Timezone:
Africa/Johannesburg
Wind: GFS
(20251122 00z)
Waves: GFS WAVE
(20251122 00z)
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Crayfish Factory surf forecast characteristics

Swell window
S - W
(Best from SW)
Swell size
8ft - 30ft
Swell breaks over
Uneven Reef
Wave types
Reef
Wave directions
Right
Wind window
NE - NE
(Offshore from NE)
Works at
Low, Mid, High
Skill Level
Expert

Crayfish Factory surf forecast guide

Crayfish Factory is a challenging surf spot located in Cape Town, known for its ferocious right-hand waves. This break requires a decent-sized S-SW swell to really start rolling, making it a place for experienced surfers. It’s considered one of the better big wave locations in the area, where you'll need good skills and a level head to tackle the heavy take-off and navigate through the longer rides that have some tricky sections.

The waves here tend to work well with swells from the South and West, especially when they hit around 2.4 meters (8 ft). If you're looking for the best conditions, a NorthEast wind is ideal, and the tide can vary, as Crayfish Factory handles low, mid, and high tides pretty well. Just remember, this spot breaks over uneven reef, which can be punishing if you bail or get caught inside. It's definitely a place for expert surfers who know what they’re doing.

Be prepared for some intense hold downs and the potential for rough landings, as the waves can be pretty powerful. While you might see some crowds and deal with rips and kelp, the real challenge comes from managing the wave itself. Make sure you're ready for a serious session if you decide to hit Crayfish Factory.

Surf schools and rentals

Surf reports and surf forecasts nearby Crayfish Factory

The Kom
Western Cape, South Africa
Reef break
Sat 22
Sun 23
Mon 24
Tue 25
Wed 26
Thu 27
Fri 28
Sat 29
Sun 30
Mon 1
Tue 2
Wed 3
365's
Western Cape, South Africa
Reef break
Sat 22
Sun 23
Mon 24
Tue 25
Wed 26
Thu 27
Fri 28
Sat 29
Sun 30
Mon 1
Tue 2
Wed 3
Crayfish Factory
Western Cape, South Africa
Reef break
Sat 22
Sun 23
Mon 24
Tue 25
Wed 26
Thu 27
Fri 28
Sat 29
Sun 30
Mon 1
Tue 2
Wed 3
Misty Cliffs
Western Cape, South Africa
Beach break
Sat 22
Sun 23
Mon 24
Tue 25
Wed 26
Thu 27
Fri 28
Sat 29
Sun 30
Mon 1
Tue 2
Wed 3
Scarborough Point
Western Cape, South Africa
Point break
Sat 22
Sun 23
Mon 24
Tue 25
Wed 26
Thu 27
Fri 28
Sat 29
Sun 30
Mon 1
Tue 2
Wed 3
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Readme

Welcome! If you’re new to surf forecasting, check out this quick guide.

Forecast Table

The forecast table (the section on the page with all the numbers) is designed to pack as much information in the screen as possible. Although intimidating at first, it will help you make informed decisions about the waves faster, trust me :D. The table consists of roughly four sections, time and predictions, wind, waves, and tides:

🔮 Time and predictions section

Here we show the forecast thour and the overall surf quality prediction. This is determined based on the wave, wind and tide quality prediction. These individual predictions can be found on the forecast map.

💨 Wind section

The first row on the table (with the 💨 icon) shows wind speed, direction and gust. The more the wind speed the more aggressive the color (from blue, green, orange to red).

🌊 Wave section

The waves section consists of three rows, one for wave height and direction, one for period and one for wave energy. Our algorithm choices the "dominant wave". This is normally the first swell partition, but with heavy local storms it displays the wind waves. If that's the case, we display the numbers in italic and in gray.

🌒 Tide section

The tide section consists of a row with the actual heights per hour (measured at the half hour) and a table that displays the flow of the tide and the extremes (lows and highs).

Forecast map

The forecast map consists of arrows. These arrows represent all wave partitions (swell partitions and wind wave partition) and the wind. This allows you to see things like: a secondary swell or wind waves messes up the surf, or the wind is just a tick offshore so very surfable. Click a metric label in the bottom left to bring that arrow to the front — handy when arrows overlap.

Forecast Cheat Sheet

Short on time? Focus on wave energy. It’s the best single metric to gauge how big and powerful the waves will be.

Click any table cell to jump to that forecast hour. The map will update with forecast arrows, so you can see if wind and swell direction are lining up.

Use the table sidebar to switch units for height and speed.

Log your surf sessions to compare forecasts with real sessions and sharpen future predictions.

Models and Updates

Surfnerd blends multiple global and local wind and swell models using advanced interpolation and spatial techniques to create an "ensemble" forecast. Forecasts are refreshed hourly.

Surf Predictions

Our AI-driven algorithm scores surf quality, shown by green, orange, and gray dots. Each forecast hour is rated for wind, swell, and tide quality, then combined into an overall score. Here’s the scale:

Perfect
Good
Average
Bad or No Data

Session logs also feed the algorithm — the more you log, the smarter your forecasts get.

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Confidence

Confidence tells you how much the weather models agree on the forecast.

  • High confidence: Models agree closely; forecast is reliable.
  • Medium confidence: Some disagreement; conditions may shift slightly.
  • Low confidence: Models diverge; treat forecast with caution.

We calculate the wind confidence by comparing wind speed, gust and direction from multiple models (like GFS, ECMWF, Arome, and Harmonie) and seeing how closely they match. For wave certainty we compare height, period and direction, also on multiple models. They are weighted, meaning that some models count more than others, depending on how good they are for a certain spot.

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