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Surf forecast for Kelpies

Tide
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Timezone:
Australia/Hobart
Forecast updated:
29/06, 10:00
Wind: SN UNITY Atmos
(20260628 12z)
Waves: SN UNITY WAVE
(20260628 12z)
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Timeline

Kelpies Surf Forecast Guide

Kelpies is a surf spot located on the Tasman Peninsula, requiring a long walk through private property to access it. This place is pretty remote, so donโ€™t expect to see many surfers around. It has a nice view with Wedge Island in the backdrop, but getting to Kelpies can be a bit of a trek, so be prepared for that.

The best time to catch waves at Kelpies is during the winter months when a moderate to large SouthEast swell rolls in. The spot works best with a SouthEast swell direction but can also handle SouthWest swells. Waves here typically break left and over an uneven reef, making it more suitable for expert surfers. When the swell hits about 4ft (1.2m), you can expect punchy pockets right from the drop that rush towards the shoulder. Keep in mind that size can be lost as the waves refract, so it's essential to be ready for a quick ride.

For the best conditions, aim for mid to high tide and a SouthEast wind. The surrounding water is deeper, which can be a concern during dawn and dusk when sharks are more active, so timing your sessions is key. Overall, Kelpies offers a unique surfing experience for those willing to make the hike.

Surf spots near Kelpies

Remarkable Caves
Tasmania, Australia
Beach break
Mon 29
Tue 30
Wed 1
Thu 2
Fri 3
Shipstern Bluff
Tasmania, Australia
Point break
Mon 29
Tue 30
Wed 1
Thu 2
Fri 3
Roaring Beach
Tasmania, Australia
Beach break
Mon 29
Tue 30
Wed 1
Thu 2
Fri 3
Kelpies
Tasmania, Australia
Point break
Mon 29
Tue 30
Wed 1
Thu 2
Fri 3
Goats
Tasmania, Australia
Beach break
Mon 29
Tue 30
Wed 1
Thu 2
Fri 3

Frequently asked questions

What are good surfing conditions for Kelpies?

Kelpies is usually best with swell from southwest to southeast (SW-SE), ideally southeast (SE) around 1.2 m / 4 ft to 2.4 m / 8 ft, southeast (SE) offshore wind, and mid to high tide.

Where is the surf spot Kelpies?

Kelpies is a surf spot in White Beach, Tasmania, Australia.

What is the surf break like at Kelpies?

Kelpies is a left point break over uneven reef. Expect a fairly quiet crowd.

What surfing skill level is Kelpies suitable for?

Kelpies can suit expert surfers.

Is Kelpies beginner friendly for surfing?

Kelpies is better suited to expert surfers.

How consistent is the surf at Kelpies?

Kelpies has moderate surf consistency for Tasmania, Australia.

Is there parking for surfing at Kelpies?

Parking around Kelpies: restricted parking.

What surf spots are near Kelpies?

Other nearby surf spots are Roaring Beach, Shipstern Bluff, Remarkable Caves, and Goats.

What swell direction works for surfing at Kelpies?

Kelpies can work with swell from southwest to southeast (SW-SE); southeast (SE) is usually best.

What swell size works for surfing at Kelpies?

Kelpies usually works with swell around 1.2 m / 4 ft to 2.4 m / 8 ft.

What wind direction is best for surfing at Kelpies?

Southeast (SE) offshore wind is usually best at Kelpies.

What wind direction is offshore for surfing at Kelpies?

Southeast (SE) is offshore at Kelpies.

What tide works best for surfing at Kelpies?

Kelpies works best around mid to high tide. A rising tide is usually better here.

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Readme

Welcome! If youโ€™re new to surf forecasting, check out this quick guide.

Forecast Table

The forecast table (the section on the page with all the numbers) is designed to pack as much information in the screen as possible. Although intimidating at first, it will help you make informed decisions about the waves faster, trust me :D. The table consists of roughly four sections, time and predictions, wind, waves, and tides:

๐Ÿ”ฎ Time and predictions section

Here we show the forecast thour and the overall surf quality prediction. This is determined based on the wave, wind and tide quality prediction. These individual predictions can be found on the forecast map.

๐Ÿ’จ Wind section

The first row on the table (with the ๐Ÿ’จ icon) shows wind speed, direction and gust. The more the wind speed the more aggressive the color (from blue, green, orange to red).

๐ŸŒŠ Wave section

The waves section consists of three rows, one for wave height and direction, one for period and one for wave energy. Our algorithm chooses the "dominant wave" using spot-adjusted surf energy (depth + directional fit). This is usually the first swell partition, but during local storms it can switch to wind waves. If that happens, values are shown in gray and italic.

๐ŸŒ’ Tide section

The tide section consists of a row with the actual heights per hour (measured at the half hour) and a table that displays the flow of the tide and the extremes (lows and highs).

Forecast map

The forecast map consists of arrows. These arrows represent all wave partitions (swell partitions and wind wave partition) and the wind. This allows you to see things like: a secondary swell or wind waves messes up the surf, or the wind is just a tick offshore so very surfable. Click a metric label in the bottom left to bring that arrow to the front โ€” handy when arrows overlap.

Forecast Cheat Sheet

Short on time? Focus on wave energy. Itโ€™s the best single metric to gauge how big and powerful the waves will be.

Click any table cell to jump to that forecast hour. The map will update with forecast arrows, so you can see if wind and swell direction are lining up.

Use the table sidebar to switch units for height and speed.

Log your surf sessions to compare forecasts with real sessions and sharpen future predictions.

Models and Updates

Surfnerd blends multiple global and local wind and swell models using advanced interpolation and spatial techniques to create an "ensemble" forecast. Forecasts are refreshed hourly.

Surf Predictions

Our AI-driven algorithm scores surf quality, shown by green, orange, and gray dots. Each forecast hour is rated for wind, swell, and tide quality, then combined into an overall score. Hereโ€™s the scale:

Perfect
Good
Average
Bad or No Data

Session logs also feed the algorithm โ€” the more you log, the smarter your forecasts get.

With Surfnerd, no more "you should have been here yesterday"

Confidence

Confidence tells you how much the weather models agree on the forecast.

  • High confidence: Models agree closely; forecast is reliable.
  • Medium confidence: Some disagreement; conditions may shift slightly.
  • Low confidence: Models diverge; treat forecast with caution.

We calculate the wind confidence by comparing wind speed, gust and direction from multiple models (like GFS, ECMWF, Arome, and Harmonie) and seeing how closely they match. For wave certainty we compare height, period and direction, also on multiple models. They are weighted, meaning that some models count more than others, depending on how good they are for a certain spot.

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