Manorbier
Hourly
Confidence
Compare
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Wednesday 29
Thursday 30
Friday 31
Saturday 01
Sunday 02
Monday 03
Tap a forecast cell to explore conditions on the map.
Timezone: Europe/London

Manorbier surf guide

Manorbier is a well-known surf spot located on the southwestern coast of Wales, sitting right beneath a Norman castle. This place offers a unique mix of history and surf culture. The beach is easily accessible and provides a scenic backdrop for surfers looking to catch some waves. It's a popular spot, especially among locals and visitors who want to enjoy the ocean in a picturesque setting.

The surf here has its highs and lows. At high tide, the right reef break on the western side of the bay creates fun, peeling waves that can reach from waist high (around 1 meter) to overhead (up to about 2.5 meters). The reef handles onshore winds pretty well, which makes it a good option even when the conditions aren't perfect. The easy paddle around the reef is a plus, but it can get crowded, especially when the waves are firing, so expect competition for those good rights. Beginners usually stick to the smaller beach waves, which are more forgiving. This spot can handle swells from the southwest and works best with a northeast wind.

Access is straightforward with a small layby for parking, but be prepared for the crowd factor as this spot is popular among both locals and tourists. Good vibes and following the surfing etiquette are essential to keep the sessions enjoyable. Itโ€™s best to visit during the autumn and winter months, from September to February, when conditions are optimal. This spot is versatile, suitable for beginners and intermediates alike, and works with various board types including shortboards, longboards, and fishes.

Surf reports and surf forecasts nearby Manorbier

Llangennith / Rhossili
Wales, United Kingdom
Beach break
Wed 29
Thu 30
Fri 31
Sat 1
Sun 2
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Tue 4
Wed 5
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Broughton Bay
Unknown Region, Unknown Country
Point break
Wed 29
Thu 30
Fri 31
Sat 1
Sun 2
Mon 3
Tue 4
Wed 5
Thu 6
Fri 7
Sat 8
Sun 9
Broadhaven South
Unknown Region, Unknown Country
Beach break
Wed 29
Thu 30
Fri 31
Sat 1
Sun 2
Mon 3
Tue 4
Wed 5
Thu 6
Fri 7
Sat 8
Sun 9
Manorbier
Unknown Region, Unknown Country
Reef break
Wed 29
Thu 30
Fri 31
Sat 1
Sun 2
Mon 3
Tue 4
Wed 5
Thu 6
Fri 7
Sat 8
Sun 9
Freshwater East
Unknown Region, Unknown Country
Beach break
Wed 29
Thu 30
Fri 31
Sat 1
Sun 2
Mon 3
Tue 4
Wed 5
Thu 6
Fri 7
Sat 8
Sun 9
Tenby South Beach
Unknown Region, Unknown Country
Beach break
Wed 29
Thu 30
Fri 31
Sat 1
Sun 2
Mon 3
Tue 4
Wed 5
Thu 6
Fri 7
Sat 8
Sun 9
Freshwater West
Unknown Region, Unknown Country
Beach break
Wed 29
Thu 30
Fri 31
Sat 1
Sun 2
Mon 3
Tue 4
Wed 5
Thu 6
Fri 7
Sat 8
Sun 9
Marloes Sands
Unknown Region, Unknown Country
Beach break
Wed 29
Thu 30
Fri 31
Sat 1
Sun 2
Mon 3
Tue 4
Wed 5
Thu 6
Fri 7
Sat 8
Sun 9
Newgale
Unknown Region, Unknown Country
Beach break
Wed 29
Thu 30
Fri 31
Sat 1
Sun 2
Mon 3
Tue 4
Wed 5
Thu 6
Fri 7
Sat 8
Sun 9
St Brides Bay
Unknown Region, Unknown Country
Beach break
Wed 29
Thu 30
Fri 31
Sat 1
Sun 2
Mon 3
Tue 4
Wed 5
Thu 6
Fri 7
Sat 8
Sun 9
Confidence

Confidence tells you how much the weather models agree on the forecast.

  • High confidence: Models agree closely; forecast is reliable.
  • Medium confidence: Some disagreement; conditions may shift slightly.
  • Low confidence: Models diverge; treat forecast with caution.

We calculate the wind confidence by comparing wind speed, gust and direction from multiple models (like GFS, ECMWF, Arome, and Harmonie) and seeing how closely they match. For wave certainty we compare height, period and direction, also on multiple models. They are weighted, meaning that some models count more than others, depending on how good they are for a certain spot.

Readme

Welcome! If youโ€™re new to surf forecasting, check out this quick guide.

Forecast Table

The forecast table (the section on the page with all the numbers) is designed to pack as much information in the screen as possible. Although intimidating at first, it will help you make informed decisions about the waves faster, trust me :D. The table consists of roughly four sections, time and predictions, wind, waves, and tides:

๐Ÿ”ฎ Time and predictions section

Here we show the forecast thour and the overall surf quality prediction. This is determined based on the wave, wind and tide quality prediction. These individual predictions can be found on the forecast map.

๐Ÿ’จ Wind section

The first row on the table (with the ๐Ÿ’จ icon) shows wind speed, direction and gust. The more the wind speed the more aggressive the color (from blue, green, orange to red).

๐ŸŒŠ Wave section

The waves section consists of three rows, one for wave height and direction, one for period and one for wave energy. Our algorithm choices the "dominant wave". This is normally the first swell partition, but with heavy local storms it displays the wind waves. If that's the case, we display the numbers in italic and in gray.

๐ŸŒ’ Tide section

The tide section consists of a row with the actual heights per hour (measured at the half hour) and a table that displays the flow of the tide and the extremes (lows and highs).

Forecast map

The forecast map consists of arrows. These arrows represent all wave partitions (swell partitions and wind wave partition) and the wind. This allows you to see things like: a secondary swell or wind waves messes up the surf, or the wind is just a tick offshore so very surfable. Click a metric label in the bottom left to bring that arrow to the front โ€” handy when arrows overlap.

Forecast Cheat Sheet

Short on time? Focus on wave energy. Itโ€™s the best single metric to gauge how big and powerful the waves will be.

Click any table cell to jump to that forecast hour. The map will update with forecast arrows, so you can see if wind and swell direction are lining up.

Use the table sidebar to switch units for height and speed.

Log your surf sessions to compare forecasts with real sessions and sharpen future predictions.

Models and Updates

Surfnerd blends multiple global and local wind and swell models using advanced interpolation and spatial techniques to create an "ensemble" forecast. Forecasts are refreshed hourly.

Surf Predictions

Our AI-driven algorithm scores surf quality, shown by green, orange, and gray dots. Each forecast hour is rated for wind, swell, and tide quality, then combined into an overall score. Hereโ€™s the scale:

Perfect
Good
Average
Bad or No Data

Session logs also feed the algorithm โ€” the more you log, the smarter your forecasts get.

With Surfnerd, no more "you should have been here yesterday"

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