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Surf forecast for Shoal Bay

Map showing Shoal Bay
Wwvs
2.6ft 4s.
30kJ
Swl 2
0.7ft 11s.
15kJ
Swl 1
7.3ft 9s.
1163kJ
Wnd
11mph
15mph
Tide
๐Ÿ’จmph
๐ŸŒŠft
โฑ๏ธs.
โšก๏ธkJ
Timezone:
Australia/Sydney
Forecast updated:
14/10, 11:00 am
Wind: SN UNITY Atmos
(20261014 00z)
Waves: SN UNITY WAVE
(20261014 00z)

Weather

Thursday 15/10

Water temperature
67ยฐF
Daily average
Air temperatureBeta
Over water
62โ€“63ยฐF
On shore
54โ€“65ยฐF
Moon phase
Waxing crescent
18% illuminated
Closest moon phase
First quarter
Mon 19/10 03:14 am
Tide range
0.2ft - 4.1ft
Low 06:36 pm ยท High 11:51 am

Timeline

Shoal Bay Surf Forecast Guide

Overview

Shoal Bay is a run of west-facing beaches tucked below Tomaree National Park, and they can serve up some fun peaks when the surf turns on. Zenith is the easiest of them to reach, while Box Beach is a bodyboard favourite, jacking up massive side and backwash off the cliffs into wedging left pits. Furthest south, Fingal Spit often washes away, but when the sand is there it peels clean and long to the right on east swells and south winds. Be aware that currents run strong through here, and this is a passing route for sharks heading into Port Stephens, a waterway larger than Sydney Harbour.

When It Works

The beaches break over sand and draw swell from northeast through southeast, with northeast (NE) the pick of the directions. Both lefts and rights peel off the banks, and the setup works from 0.3 m / 1 ft to 3.7 m / 12 ft. Consistency is moderate, so you won't score every day, but the good windows are worth waiting for.

Wind and Tide

Look for west (W) offshore wind to clean things up. It surfs across low, mid, and high tide, with a rising tide generally the better call.

Local Tips

The waves here are friendly enough for beginners, and you can expect a moderately busy lineup when it's on.

Access

There's a car park with free parking, along with roadside parking nearby.

Surf spots near Shoal Bay

Newcastle Harbour
New South Wales, Australia
Unknown break
Thu 15
Fri 16
Sat 17
Sun 18
Mon 19
Stockton Beach
New South Wales, Australia
Beach break
Thu 15
Fri 16
Sat 17
Sun 18
Mon 19
One Mile
New South Wales, Australia
Beach break
Thu 15
Fri 16
Sat 17
Sun 18
Mon 19
Shoal Bay
New South Wales, Australia
Beach break
Thu 15
Fri 16
Sat 17
Sun 18
Mon 19
Hawks Nest
New South Wales, Australia
Beach break
Thu 15
Fri 16
Sat 17
Sun 18
Mon 19

Frequently asked questions

What are good surfing conditions for Shoal Bay?

Shoal Bay is usually best with swell from northeast to southeast (NE-SE), ideally northeast (NE) around 0.3 m / 1 ft to 3.7 m / 12 ft, west (W) offshore wind, and any tide.

Where is the surf spot Shoal Bay?

Shoal Bay is a surf spot in Nelson Bay, New South Wales, Australia.

What is the surf break like at Shoal Bay?

Shoal Bay is a left-and-right beach break over sand. Expect a moderate crowd.

What surfing skill level is Shoal Bay suitable for?

Shoal Bay can suit beginner surfers.

Is Shoal Bay beginner friendly for surfing?

Yes. Shoal Bay can suit beginner surfers when conditions are manageable.

How consistent is the surf at Shoal Bay?

Shoal Bay has moderate surf consistency for New South Wales, Australia.

Is there parking for surfing at Shoal Bay?

Parking around Shoal Bay: free parking, roadside parking, and car park.

What surf spots are near Shoal Bay?

Other nearby surf spots are Hawks Nest, One Mile, Stockton Beach, and Newcastle Harbour.

What swell direction works for surfing at Shoal Bay?

Shoal Bay can work with swell from northeast to southeast (NE-SE); northeast (NE) is usually best.

What swell size works for surfing at Shoal Bay?

Shoal Bay usually works with swell around 0.3 m / 1 ft to 3.7 m / 12 ft.

What wind direction is best for surfing at Shoal Bay?

West (W) offshore wind is usually best at Shoal Bay.

What wind direction is offshore for surfing at Shoal Bay?

West (W) is offshore at Shoal Bay.

What tide works best for surfing at Shoal Bay?

Shoal Bay can work on all tides. A rising tide is usually better here.

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Readme

Welcome! If youโ€™re new to surf forecasting, check out this quick guide.

Forecast Table

The forecast table (the section on the page with all the numbers) is designed to pack as much information in the screen as possible. Although intimidating at first, it will help you make informed decisions about the waves faster, trust me :D. The table consists of roughly four sections, time and predictions, wind, waves, and tides:

๐Ÿ”ฎ Time and predictions section

Here we show the forecast thour and the overall surf quality prediction. This is determined based on the wave, wind and tide quality prediction. These individual predictions can be found on the forecast map.

๐Ÿ’จ Wind section

The first row on the table (with the ๐Ÿ’จ icon) shows wind speed, direction and gust. The more the wind speed the more aggressive the color (from blue, green, orange to red).

๐ŸŒŠ Wave section

The waves section consists of three rows, one for wave height and direction, one for period and one for wave energy. Our algorithm chooses the "dominant wave" using spot-adjusted surf energy (depth + directional fit). This is usually the first swell partition, but during local storms it can switch to wind waves. If that happens, values are shown in gray and italic.

๐ŸŽฏ Model agreement

The small letter in the wind and wave cells shows how closely the weather models we blend agree for that hour.

  • H, the models line up closely.
  • M, the models differ somewhat, so conditions may still shift.
  • L, the models disagree, so check again closer to your session.
  • A dash means only one model covered this hour, so there was nothing to compare.

For wind we compare each model's wind vector, plus gusts where every model reports them. For waves we compare height, period and direction of the matched swell systems.

It is a measure of model agreement, not a probability that the forecast is right.

๐ŸŒ’ Tide section

The tide section consists of a row with the actual heights per hour (measured at the half hour) and a table that displays the flow of the tide and the extremes (lows and highs).

Forecast map

The forecast map consists of arrows. These arrows represent all wave partitions (swell partitions and wind wave partition) and the wind. This allows you to see things like: a secondary swell or wind waves messes up the surf, or the wind is just a tick offshore so very surfable. Click a metric label in the bottom left to bring that arrow to the front โ€” handy when arrows overlap.

Forecast Cheat Sheet

Short on time? Focus on wave energy. Itโ€™s the best single metric to gauge how big and powerful the waves will be.

Click any table cell to jump to that forecast hour. The map will update with forecast arrows, so you can see if wind and swell direction are lining up.

Use the table sidebar to switch units for height and speed.

Log your surf sessions to compare forecasts with real sessions and sharpen future predictions.

Models and Updates

Surfnerd blends multiple global and local wind and swell models using advanced interpolation and spatial techniques to create an "ensemble" forecast. Forecasts are refreshed hourly.

Surf Predictions

Our AI-driven algorithm scores surf quality, shown by green, orange, and gray dots. Each forecast hour is rated for wind, swell, and tide quality, then combined into an overall score. Hereโ€™s the scale:

Perfect
Good
Average
Bad or No Data

Session logs also feed the algorithm โ€” the more you log, the smarter your forecasts get.

With Surfnerd, no more "you should have been here yesterday"

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