Whale Bay (Raglan)
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Hourly Forecast
Timezone: Pacific/Auckland
⏱️s.
⚡️kJ
Thursday 28
Friday 29
Saturday 30
Sunday 31
Monday 01
Tuesday 02
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Whale Bay (Raglan) surf guide

Whale Bay, located just outside of Raglan, is often seen as the lesser-known surf spot compared to its more popular neighbors. It's a bit off the beaten path, and while it doesn't always get the same hype, it has its own charm. The bay can get crowded during the summer months, but usually, you'll find it less packed than other spots in Raglan, which is great if you're looking to catch some waves without the usual throngs of surfers.

When it comes to surfing at Whale Bay, it can hold its own on smaller days, usually around 2ft (about 0.6 meters), especially when the swell comes from the southwest. The waves break over boulders and often roll left, making it a fun choice for intermediate surfers. On bigger days, the waves can lose their steepness and tend to roll along, unless you’re lucky enough to get a more northwesterly swell that can create some nice barrels over the rocks. For the best results, aim for low to mid tide, and you'll enjoy a more consistent ride.

The beach can be tricky to navigate, with some rocks sneaking up on you, particularly near the jump-off spot. It's important to be aware of your surroundings, especially if you're relatively new to the spot. Also, if you're interested in exploring a surf spot that might not feel as local-heavy, Whale Bay gives intermediates a solid chance to practice and enjoy the waves without too much pressure.

Surf reports and surf forecasts nearby Whale Bay (Raglan)

Te Akau
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Wed 3
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Te Akau South
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Thu 28
Fri 29
Sat 30
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Raglan Bar
Unknown Region, Unknown Country
Beach break
Thu 28
Fri 29
Sat 30
Sun 31
Mon 1
Tue 2
Wed 3
Thu 4
Fri 5
Sat 6
Sun 7
Mon 8
Ngarunui Beach
Waikato, New Zealand
Beach break
Thu 28
Fri 29
Sat 30
Sun 31
Mon 1
Tue 2
Wed 3
Thu 4
Fri 5
Sat 6
Sun 7
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Manu Bay
Unknown Region, Unknown Country
Point break
Thu 28
Fri 29
Sat 30
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Tue 2
Wed 3
Thu 4
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Sun 7
Mon 8
Whale Bay (Raglan)
Waikato, New Zealand
Point break
Thu 28
Fri 29
Sat 30
Sun 31
Mon 1
Tue 2
Wed 3
Thu 4
Fri 5
Sat 6
Sun 7
Mon 8
Indicators (Raglan)
Waikato, New Zealand
Point break
Thu 28
Fri 29
Sat 30
Sun 31
Mon 1
Tue 2
Wed 3
Thu 4
Fri 5
Sat 6
Sun 7
Mon 8
Ruapuke
Waikato, New Zealand
Beach break
Thu 28
Fri 29
Sat 30
Sun 31
Mon 1
Tue 2
Wed 3
Thu 4
Fri 5
Sat 6
Sun 7
Mon 8
Albatross Point
Waikato, New Zealand
Point break
Thu 28
Fri 29
Sat 30
Sun 31
Mon 1
Tue 2
Wed 3
Thu 4
Fri 5
Sat 6
Sun 7
Mon 8

Readme

Welcome! If you’re new to surf forecasting, check out this quick guide.

Forecast Table

The forecast table (the section on the page with all the numbers) is designed to pack as much information in the screen as possible. Although intimidating at first, it will help you make informed decisions about the waves faster, trust me :D. The table consists of roughly four sections, time and predictions, wind, waves, and tides:

🔮 Time and predictions section

Here we show the forecast thour and the overall surf quality prediction. This is determined based on the wave, wind and tide quality prediction. These individual predictions can be found on the forecast map.

💨 Wind section

The first row on the table (with the 💨 icon) shows wind speed, direction and gust. The more the wind speed the more aggressive the color (from blue, green, orange to red).

🌊 Wave section

The waves section consists of three rows, one for wave height and direction, one for period and one for wave energy. Our algorithm choices the "dominant wave". This is normally the first swell partition, but with heavy local storms it displays the wind waves. If that's the case, we display the numbers in italic and in gray.

🌒 Tide section

The tide section consists of a row with the actual heights per hour (measured at the half hour) and a table that displays the flow of the tide and the extremes (lows and highs).

Forecast map

The forecast map consists of arrows. These arrows represent all wave partitions (swell partitions and wind wave partition) and the wind. This allows you to see things like: a secondary swell or wind waves messes up the surf, or the wind is just a tick offshore so very surfable. Click a metric label in the bottom left to bring that arrow to the front — handy when arrows overlap.

Forecast Cheat Sheet

Short on time? Focus on wave energy. It’s the best single metric to gauge how big and powerful the waves will be.

Click any table cell to jump to that forecast hour. The map will update with forecast arrows, so you can see if wind and swell direction are lining up.

Use the table sidebar to switch units for height and speed.

Log your surf sessions to compare forecasts with real sessions and sharpen future predictions.

Models and Updates

Surfnerd blends multiple global and local wind and swell models using advanced interpolation and spatial techniques to create an "ensemble" forecast. Forecasts are refreshed hourly.

Surf Predictions

Our AI-driven algorithm scores surf quality, shown by green, orange, and gray dots. Each forecast hour is rated for wind, swell, and tide quality, then combined into an overall score. Here’s the scale:

Perfect
Good
Average
Bad or No Data

Session logs also feed the algorithm — the more you log, the smarter your forecasts get.

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Wind certainty

Wind certainty tells you how much the weather models agree on the forecast.

  • High certainty: Models agree closely; forecast is reliable.
  • Medium certainty: Some disagreement; conditions may shift slightly.
  • Low certainty: Models diverge; treat forecast with caution.

We calculate this by comparing wind speed, gust and direction from multiple models (like GFS, ECMWF, Arome, and Harmonie) and seeing how closely they match. They are weighted, meaning that some models count more than others, depending on how good they are for a certain spot.

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