El Capitan State Beach
Hourly
Confidence
Compare
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Tuesday 28
Wednesday 29
Thursday 30
Friday 31
Saturday 01
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Timezone: America/Los_Angeles

El Capitan State Beach surf guide

El Capitan State Beach is a surf spot located in Santa Barbara, California. Itโ€™s known for its rarity when it comes to waves, making it a low-consistency gem. The area offers a camping option for surfers looking to stay close to the beach, but the overall scene can be tense due to local crowds. Getting there is pretty straightforward; just exit the 101 at the designated ramp and head towards the kiosk.

When it does break, El Capitan can serve up some quality waves. This spot often only sees action during the autumn and winter months, especially with large west (W) or southwest (WSW) swells that reach sizes from 5ft to 12ft (1.5m to 3.6m). The best conditions usually come with low to mid tides, and itโ€™s important to catch a swell period less than 15 seconds for a clean ride. Youโ€™ll find primarily right-point waves that break over a mix of boulders and sand. While paddling is manageable when the waves are smaller, it can kick up a notch when things get pumping. Itโ€™s definitely suited for intermediate surfers, and you'll likely use a shortboard or bodyboard here.

As for the vibe in the water, expect it to be crowded and competitive. Locals know the spot well, and the medium local scene can turn tense if you're not careful. Hazards include sharp boulders and the chance of drop-ins, so keep your head on a swivel. If you find yourself at El Capitan during the right conditions, you might just score some solid barrels, but be ready for the hustle and bustle.

Surf reports and surf forecasts nearby El Capitan State Beach

Isla Vista
California, United States
Beach break
Tue 28
Wed 29
Thu 30
Fri 31
Sat 1
Sun 2
Mon 3
Tue 4
Wed 5
Thu 6
Fri 7
Sat 8
Devereux
California, United States
Beach break, Reef break
Tue 28
Wed 29
Thu 30
Fri 31
Sat 1
Sun 2
Mon 3
Tue 4
Wed 5
Thu 6
Fri 7
Sat 8
Devereux (Coal Oil Point)
California, United States
Point break
Tue 28
Wed 29
Thu 30
Fri 31
Sat 1
Sun 2
Mon 3
Tue 4
Wed 5
Thu 6
Fri 7
Sat 8
Sands Beach
California, United States
Beach break
Tue 28
Wed 29
Thu 30
Fri 31
Sat 1
Sun 2
Mon 3
Tue 4
Wed 5
Thu 6
Fri 7
Sat 8
Cat Canyon
California, United States
Point break
Tue 28
Wed 29
Thu 30
Fri 31
Sat 1
Sun 2
Mon 3
Tue 4
Wed 5
Thu 6
Fri 7
Sat 8
El Capitan State Beach
California, United States
Point break
Tue 28
Wed 29
Thu 30
Fri 31
Sat 1
Sun 2
Mon 3
Tue 4
Wed 5
Thu 6
Fri 7
Sat 8
Beavers/Hazards
California, United States
Reef break
Tue 28
Wed 29
Thu 30
Fri 31
Sat 1
Sun 2
Mon 3
Tue 4
Wed 5
Thu 6
Fri 7
Sat 8
Refugio State Beach
California, United States
Point break
Tue 28
Wed 29
Thu 30
Fri 31
Sat 1
Sun 2
Mon 3
Tue 4
Wed 5
Thu 6
Fri 7
Sat 8
Tajiguas
California, United States
Beach break
Tue 28
Wed 29
Thu 30
Fri 31
Sat 1
Sun 2
Mon 3
Tue 4
Wed 5
Thu 6
Fri 7
Sat 8
Molino Canyon
California, United States
Unknown break
Tue 28
Wed 29
Thu 30
Fri 31
Sat 1
Sun 2
Mon 3
Tue 4
Wed 5
Thu 6
Fri 7
Sat 8
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Confidence

Confidence tells you how much the weather models agree on the forecast.

  • High confidence: Models agree closely; forecast is reliable.
  • Medium confidence: Some disagreement; conditions may shift slightly.
  • Low confidence: Models diverge; treat forecast with caution.

We calculate the wind confidence by comparing wind speed, gust and direction from multiple models (like GFS, ECMWF, Arome, and Harmonie) and seeing how closely they match. For wave certainty we compare height, period and direction, also on multiple models. They are weighted, meaning that some models count more than others, depending on how good they are for a certain spot.

Readme

Welcome! If youโ€™re new to surf forecasting, check out this quick guide.

Forecast Table

The forecast table (the section on the page with all the numbers) is designed to pack as much information in the screen as possible. Although intimidating at first, it will help you make informed decisions about the waves faster, trust me :D. The table consists of roughly four sections, time and predictions, wind, waves, and tides:

๐Ÿ”ฎ Time and predictions section

Here we show the forecast thour and the overall surf quality prediction. This is determined based on the wave, wind and tide quality prediction. These individual predictions can be found on the forecast map.

๐Ÿ’จ Wind section

The first row on the table (with the ๐Ÿ’จ icon) shows wind speed, direction and gust. The more the wind speed the more aggressive the color (from blue, green, orange to red).

๐ŸŒŠ Wave section

The waves section consists of three rows, one for wave height and direction, one for period and one for wave energy. Our algorithm choices the "dominant wave". This is normally the first swell partition, but with heavy local storms it displays the wind waves. If that's the case, we display the numbers in italic and in gray.

๐ŸŒ’ Tide section

The tide section consists of a row with the actual heights per hour (measured at the half hour) and a table that displays the flow of the tide and the extremes (lows and highs).

Forecast map

The forecast map consists of arrows. These arrows represent all wave partitions (swell partitions and wind wave partition) and the wind. This allows you to see things like: a secondary swell or wind waves messes up the surf, or the wind is just a tick offshore so very surfable. Click a metric label in the bottom left to bring that arrow to the front โ€” handy when arrows overlap.

Forecast Cheat Sheet

Short on time? Focus on wave energy. Itโ€™s the best single metric to gauge how big and powerful the waves will be.

Click any table cell to jump to that forecast hour. The map will update with forecast arrows, so you can see if wind and swell direction are lining up.

Use the table sidebar to switch units for height and speed.

Log your surf sessions to compare forecasts with real sessions and sharpen future predictions.

Models and Updates

Surfnerd blends multiple global and local wind and swell models using advanced interpolation and spatial techniques to create an "ensemble" forecast. Forecasts are refreshed hourly.

Surf Predictions

Our AI-driven algorithm scores surf quality, shown by green, orange, and gray dots. Each forecast hour is rated for wind, swell, and tide quality, then combined into an overall score. Hereโ€™s the scale:

Perfect
Good
Average
Bad or No Data

Session logs also feed the algorithm โ€” the more you log, the smarter your forecasts get.

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