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Surf forecast for Manele Bay

Tide
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Timezone:
Pacific/Honolulu
Forecast updated:
24/06, 14:00
Wind: SN UNITY Atmos
(20260625 00z)
Waves: SN UNITY WAVE
(20260625 00z)
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Timeline

Fri 26/06
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Manele Bay Surf Forecast Guide

Manele Bay is a surf spot located on the eastern rim of the bay near Hulopo'e Beach Park, just west of the Manele boat harbor on the south side of Lanai. It's known for its clean and well-groomed conditions when the waves are firing, making it a popular spot among local surfers. The environment here is pristine, providing a nice backdrop for a day on the water.

The wave at Manele mostly comes in as a lefthand point break, working best with south to southwest swells. It can handle swell sizes from about 4ft to 7ft (1.2m to 2.1m) and is generally best during the summer months, although some winter swells can also generate decent waves. The paddle out is easy, though it can get long once the waves pick up. Ideally, the wind direction should come from the north to northeast or even east, keeping the surf clean. While the main wave can provide some excellent barrels and ripable sections, on days when conditions aren't ideal, you can find some shorter peaks just beyond the reef and heavy shorepound suitable for bodysurfing and bodyboarding right off the sandy beach.

As for crowds, it really depends on what the surf is doing. The crowd factor can be hit or miss, so be prepared for variable conditions and fellow surfers. The local vibe here appreciates humility and respect, so keep that in mind if you're new to the spot. Whether you're aiming to shortboard or enjoy bodysurfing, Manele Bay has something to offer intermediate and expert surfers alike, especially during its prime surf seasons in spring and summer.

Surf spots near Manele Bay

Shark Pit
Hawaii, United States
Reef break
Thu 25
Fri 26
Sat 27
Sun 28
Mon 29
Lopa Beach
Hawaii, United States
Reef break
Thu 25
Fri 26
Sat 27
Sun 28
Mon 29
Kaiolohia Bay/Shipwreck Beach
Hawaii, United States
Reef break, Offshore break
Thu 25
Fri 26
Sat 27
Sun 28
Mon 29
Pohakuloa
Hawaii, United States
Reef break, Point break, Offshore break
Thu 25
Fri 26
Sat 27
Sun 28
Mon 29
Manele Bay
Hawaii, United States
Reef break, Point break
Thu 25
Fri 26
Sat 27
Sun 28
Mon 29

Frequently asked questions

What are good surfing conditions for Manele Bay?

Manele Bay is usually best with south-southeast through south to west (SSE-S-W) swell around 1.2 m / 4 ft to 2.1 m / 7 ft, wind from north through east-northeast to east-southeast (N-ENE-ESE), with northeast (NE) offshore, and any tide.

Where is the surf spot Manele Bay?

Manele Bay is a surf spot in Manele, Hawaii, United States.

What is the surf break like at Manele Bay?

Wave types at Manele Bay are reef and point. Waves at Manele Bay break left. Manele Bay breaks over lava, rock, and coral. Expect a fairly quiet crowd and a somewhat reserved lineup.

What season is best for surfing Manele Bay?

The main surf season at Manele Bay is spring, summer, and autumn.

What surfing skill level is Manele Bay suitable for?

Manele Bay can suit intermediate and expert surfers.

Is Manele Bay beginner friendly for surfing?

Manele Bay is better suited to intermediate and expert surfers.

What surfboards work at Manele Bay?

Shortboard, Bodyboard, Skimming, and Bodysurfing are common choices at Manele Bay.

What surf spots are near Manele Bay?

Other nearby surf spots are Lopa Beach, Kaiolohia Bay/Shipwreck Beach, Pohakuloa, and Shark Pit.

What swell direction works for surfing at Manele Bay?

Manele Bay can work with swell from south-southeast through south to west (SSE-S-W).

What swell size works for surfing at Manele Bay?

Manele Bay usually works with swell around 1.2 m / 4 ft to 2.1 m / 7 ft.

What wind direction is best for surfing at Manele Bay?

Manele Bay usually works with wind from north through east-northeast to east-southeast (N-ENE-ESE); northeast (NE) is offshore.

What wind direction is offshore for surfing at Manele Bay?

Northeast (NE) is offshore at Manele Bay.

What tide works best for surfing at Manele Bay?

Manele Bay can work on all tides. A rising tide is usually better here.

Readme

Welcome! If youโ€™re new to surf forecasting, check out this quick guide.

Forecast Table

The forecast table (the section on the page with all the numbers) is designed to pack as much information in the screen as possible. Although intimidating at first, it will help you make informed decisions about the waves faster, trust me :D. The table consists of roughly four sections, time and predictions, wind, waves, and tides:

๐Ÿ”ฎ Time and predictions section

Here we show the forecast thour and the overall surf quality prediction. This is determined based on the wave, wind and tide quality prediction. These individual predictions can be found on the forecast map.

๐Ÿ’จ Wind section

The first row on the table (with the ๐Ÿ’จ icon) shows wind speed, direction and gust. The more the wind speed the more aggressive the color (from blue, green, orange to red).

๐ŸŒŠ Wave section

The waves section consists of three rows, one for wave height and direction, one for period and one for wave energy. Our algorithm chooses the "dominant wave" using spot-adjusted surf energy (depth + directional fit). This is usually the first swell partition, but during local storms it can switch to wind waves. If that happens, values are shown in gray and italic.

๐ŸŒ’ Tide section

The tide section consists of a row with the actual heights per hour (measured at the half hour) and a table that displays the flow of the tide and the extremes (lows and highs).

Forecast map

The forecast map consists of arrows. These arrows represent all wave partitions (swell partitions and wind wave partition) and the wind. This allows you to see things like: a secondary swell or wind waves messes up the surf, or the wind is just a tick offshore so very surfable. Click a metric label in the bottom left to bring that arrow to the front โ€” handy when arrows overlap.

Forecast Cheat Sheet

Short on time? Focus on wave energy. Itโ€™s the best single metric to gauge how big and powerful the waves will be.

Click any table cell to jump to that forecast hour. The map will update with forecast arrows, so you can see if wind and swell direction are lining up.

Use the table sidebar to switch units for height and speed.

Log your surf sessions to compare forecasts with real sessions and sharpen future predictions.

Models and Updates

Surfnerd blends multiple global and local wind and swell models using advanced interpolation and spatial techniques to create an "ensemble" forecast. Forecasts are refreshed hourly.

Surf Predictions

Our AI-driven algorithm scores surf quality, shown by green, orange, and gray dots. Each forecast hour is rated for wind, swell, and tide quality, then combined into an overall score. Hereโ€™s the scale:

Perfect
Good
Average
Bad or No Data

Session logs also feed the algorithm โ€” the more you log, the smarter your forecasts get.

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Confidence

Confidence tells you how much the weather models agree on the forecast.

  • High confidence: Models agree closely; forecast is reliable.
  • Medium confidence: Some disagreement; conditions may shift slightly.
  • Low confidence: Models diverge; treat forecast with caution.

We calculate the wind confidence by comparing wind speed, gust and direction from multiple models (like GFS, ECMWF, Arome, and Harmonie) and seeing how closely they match. For wave certainty we compare height, period and direction, also on multiple models. They are weighted, meaning that some models count more than others, depending on how good they are for a certain spot.

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