The Neck
Hourly
Confidence
Compare
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Tuesday 28
Wednesday 29
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Tap a forecast cell to explore conditions on the map.
Timezone: Australia/Hobart

The Neck surf guide

The Neck is a narrow isthmus of land connecting North and South Bruny Island. It features a straight, sandy beach that does not face directly into the main swell, which can make it a bit less consistent compared to other spots. When the conditions line up, it can produce some fun waves, but donโ€™t expect it to be pumping every day. The best place to check it out is probably around the lookout, where itโ€™s easiest to access the beach.

The surf here is mainly for beginners, as it usually handles smaller swell sizes, starting from about 1 ft (0.3 meters). The optimal swell direction is from the Southeast (SE), but it can also pick up swells coming from the South. Youโ€™ll find both left and right waves breaking over sand, and the conditions are best when the tide is low, mid, or high. On days when the winds are blowing from the Northwest, you'll likely enjoy cleaner waves. Keep in mind that the beach can sometimes be small and dribbly, and it really helps if there are some prominent rips or gutters to help shape the peaks, especially when a SE swell is running.

It's a laid-back spot, making it a great choice for novice surfers looking to practice. Just remember that because of its orientation, it might not always be as powerful as some other nearby locations, so check the surf before you head out. If the conditions are right, you can snag some decent rides, but don't expect world-class surf every time you paddle out.

Surf reports and surf forecasts nearby The Neck

Shipstern Bluff
Tasmania, Australia
Point break
Tue 28
Wed 29
Thu 30
Fri 31
Sat 1
Sun 2
Mon 3
Tue 4
Wed 5
Thu 6
Fri 7
Sat 8
Roaring Beach
Tasmania, Australia
Beach break
Tue 28
Wed 29
Thu 30
Fri 31
Sat 1
Sun 2
Mon 3
Tue 4
Wed 5
Thu 6
Fri 7
Sat 8
Kelpies
Tasmania, Australia
Point break
Tue 28
Wed 29
Thu 30
Fri 31
Sat 1
Sun 2
Mon 3
Tue 4
Wed 5
Thu 6
Fri 7
Sat 8
Clifton Beach
Tasmania, Australia
Beach break
Tue 28
Wed 29
Thu 30
Fri 31
Sat 1
Sun 2
Mon 3
Tue 4
Wed 5
Thu 6
Fri 7
Sat 8
Goats
Tasmania, Australia
Beach break
Tue 28
Wed 29
Thu 30
Fri 31
Sat 1
Sun 2
Mon 3
Tue 4
Wed 5
Thu 6
Fri 7
Sat 8
Wedge
Tasmania, Australia
Beach break
Tue 28
Wed 29
Thu 30
Fri 31
Sat 1
Sun 2
Mon 3
Tue 4
Wed 5
Thu 6
Fri 7
Sat 8
The Neck
Tasmania, Australia
Beach break
Tue 28
Wed 29
Thu 30
Fri 31
Sat 1
Sun 2
Mon 3
Tue 4
Wed 5
Thu 6
Fri 7
Sat 8
Coal Point
Tasmania, Australia
Point break
Tue 28
Wed 29
Thu 30
Fri 31
Sat 1
Sun 2
Mon 3
Tue 4
Wed 5
Thu 6
Fri 7
Sat 8
Cloudy Bay
Tasmania, Australia
Beach break
Tue 28
Wed 29
Thu 30
Fri 31
Sat 1
Sun 2
Mon 3
Tue 4
Wed 5
Thu 6
Fri 7
Sat 8
Lagoons
Tasmania, Australia
Rivermouth break
Tue 28
Wed 29
Thu 30
Fri 31
Sat 1
Sun 2
Mon 3
Tue 4
Wed 5
Thu 6
Fri 7
Sat 8
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Confidence

Confidence tells you how much the weather models agree on the forecast.

  • High confidence: Models agree closely; forecast is reliable.
  • Medium confidence: Some disagreement; conditions may shift slightly.
  • Low confidence: Models diverge; treat forecast with caution.

We calculate the wind confidence by comparing wind speed, gust and direction from multiple models (like GFS, ECMWF, Arome, and Harmonie) and seeing how closely they match. For wave certainty we compare height, period and direction, also on multiple models. They are weighted, meaning that some models count more than others, depending on how good they are for a certain spot.

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Welcome! If youโ€™re new to surf forecasting, check out this quick guide.

Forecast Table

The forecast table (the section on the page with all the numbers) is designed to pack as much information in the screen as possible. Although intimidating at first, it will help you make informed decisions about the waves faster, trust me :D. The table consists of roughly four sections, time and predictions, wind, waves, and tides:

๐Ÿ”ฎ Time and predictions section

Here we show the forecast thour and the overall surf quality prediction. This is determined based on the wave, wind and tide quality prediction. These individual predictions can be found on the forecast map.

๐Ÿ’จ Wind section

The first row on the table (with the ๐Ÿ’จ icon) shows wind speed, direction and gust. The more the wind speed the more aggressive the color (from blue, green, orange to red).

๐ŸŒŠ Wave section

The waves section consists of three rows, one for wave height and direction, one for period and one for wave energy. Our algorithm choices the "dominant wave". This is normally the first swell partition, but with heavy local storms it displays the wind waves. If that's the case, we display the numbers in italic and in gray.

๐ŸŒ’ Tide section

The tide section consists of a row with the actual heights per hour (measured at the half hour) and a table that displays the flow of the tide and the extremes (lows and highs).

Forecast map

The forecast map consists of arrows. These arrows represent all wave partitions (swell partitions and wind wave partition) and the wind. This allows you to see things like: a secondary swell or wind waves messes up the surf, or the wind is just a tick offshore so very surfable. Click a metric label in the bottom left to bring that arrow to the front โ€” handy when arrows overlap.

Forecast Cheat Sheet

Short on time? Focus on wave energy. Itโ€™s the best single metric to gauge how big and powerful the waves will be.

Click any table cell to jump to that forecast hour. The map will update with forecast arrows, so you can see if wind and swell direction are lining up.

Use the table sidebar to switch units for height and speed.

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Surfnerd blends multiple global and local wind and swell models using advanced interpolation and spatial techniques to create an "ensemble" forecast. Forecasts are refreshed hourly.

Surf Predictions

Our AI-driven algorithm scores surf quality, shown by green, orange, and gray dots. Each forecast hour is rated for wind, swell, and tide quality, then combined into an overall score. Hereโ€™s the scale:

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Session logs also feed the algorithm โ€” the more you log, the smarter your forecasts get.

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