Tobelo Islands
Hourly
Confidence
Compare
โฑ๏ธs.
โšก๏ธkJ
Friday 31
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Timezone: Asia/Jayapura
Wind: GFS (20251030 18z)
Waves: GFS WAVE (20251030 18z)

Tobelo Islands surf guide

The Tobelo Islands, located in a remote area, offer a unique surfing experience away from the crowds. Accessible only by boat, these islands are a part of the stunning natural landscape that frames this surf destination. The area features several reefs that capture the NE-E swells that roll in, providing various wave options for surfers looking to explore different breaks.

You can expect the Tobelo Islands to handle swell sizes down to about 2 ft (0.6 m) and can catch some excellent waves depending on the conditions. The lefts off Kokara and the rights at Tagalaya work well during the same swell events. Green Pools on Tupu Tupu is reliable but shines at lower tides, as it picks up the most swell. If you're at Miti, youโ€™ll find a solid left that spins over live coral and a short right further up the straight reef when the surf is smaller. Overall, the waves break over live coral, making it essential to know what you're doing out there.

Consistency at Tobelo is better than you might think given its sheltered position. However, if Green Pools is flat, chances are there wonโ€™t be any surf at all around the area. The preferred wind direction is from the southwest, which usually creates favorable conditions for riders. The Tobelo Islands are best suited for expert surfers who can handle the unique challenges of reef breaks and the sometimes tricky conditions.

Surf reports and surf forecasts nearby Tobelo Islands

Pulau Kecil
Unknown Region, Unknown Country
Reef break
Fri 31
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Tacos
Unknown Region, Unknown Country
Reef break
Fri 31
Sat 1
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Heavy's
Unknown Region, Unknown Country
Reef break
Fri 31
Sat 1
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Double Dome
Unknown Region, Unknown Country
Reef break
Fri 31
Sat 1
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Coconut Swing
Unknown Region, Unknown Country
Reef break
Fri 31
Sat 1
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Sidewalk
Unknown Region, Unknown Country
Reef break
Fri 31
Sat 1
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Racing Lefts
Unknown Region, Unknown Country
Reef break
Fri 31
Sat 1
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Tobelo Islands
Unknown Region, Unknown Country
Reef break
Fri 31
Sat 1
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Paniki Point
Unknown Region, Unknown Country
Reef break
Fri 31
Sat 1
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Sama Sama's
Unknown Region, Unknown Country
Reef break
Fri 31
Sat 1
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Confidence

Confidence tells you how much the weather models agree on the forecast.

  • High confidence: Models agree closely; forecast is reliable.
  • Medium confidence: Some disagreement; conditions may shift slightly.
  • Low confidence: Models diverge; treat forecast with caution.

We calculate the wind confidence by comparing wind speed, gust and direction from multiple models (like GFS, ECMWF, Arome, and Harmonie) and seeing how closely they match. For wave certainty we compare height, period and direction, also on multiple models. They are weighted, meaning that some models count more than others, depending on how good they are for a certain spot.

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Welcome! If youโ€™re new to surf forecasting, check out this quick guide.

Forecast Table

The forecast table (the section on the page with all the numbers) is designed to pack as much information in the screen as possible. Although intimidating at first, it will help you make informed decisions about the waves faster, trust me :D. The table consists of roughly four sections, time and predictions, wind, waves, and tides:

๐Ÿ”ฎ Time and predictions section

Here we show the forecast thour and the overall surf quality prediction. This is determined based on the wave, wind and tide quality prediction. These individual predictions can be found on the forecast map.

๐Ÿ’จ Wind section

The first row on the table (with the ๐Ÿ’จ icon) shows wind speed, direction and gust. The more the wind speed the more aggressive the color (from blue, green, orange to red).

๐ŸŒŠ Wave section

The waves section consists of three rows, one for wave height and direction, one for period and one for wave energy. Our algorithm choices the "dominant wave". This is normally the first swell partition, but with heavy local storms it displays the wind waves. If that's the case, we display the numbers in italic and in gray.

๐ŸŒ’ Tide section

The tide section consists of a row with the actual heights per hour (measured at the half hour) and a table that displays the flow of the tide and the extremes (lows and highs).

Forecast map

The forecast map consists of arrows. These arrows represent all wave partitions (swell partitions and wind wave partition) and the wind. This allows you to see things like: a secondary swell or wind waves messes up the surf, or the wind is just a tick offshore so very surfable. Click a metric label in the bottom left to bring that arrow to the front โ€” handy when arrows overlap.

Forecast Cheat Sheet

Short on time? Focus on wave energy. Itโ€™s the best single metric to gauge how big and powerful the waves will be.

Click any table cell to jump to that forecast hour. The map will update with forecast arrows, so you can see if wind and swell direction are lining up.

Use the table sidebar to switch units for height and speed.

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Models and Updates

Surfnerd blends multiple global and local wind and swell models using advanced interpolation and spatial techniques to create an "ensemble" forecast. Forecasts are refreshed hourly.

Surf Predictions

Our AI-driven algorithm scores surf quality, shown by green, orange, and gray dots. Each forecast hour is rated for wind, swell, and tide quality, then combined into an overall score. Hereโ€™s the scale:

Perfect
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Average
Bad or No Data

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